Within only a few days of Democrat Raphael Warnock winning the runoff for the US Senate in Georgia, giving the Democrats a 51-49 majority in the senate, Kyrsten Sinema a quirky Democrat from Arizona left the Democratic Party to become an independent. That 51 seat Democratic majority turned out to be pretty short-lived. However, Sinema’s decision, with regards to the senate itself, will have very little impact. The Democrats still have a 50-49 majority with Sinema as the one independent. However, that is not exactly true as two other independents Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine caucus with the Democrats and are part of their majority. It is likely that in the senate, Sinema will occupy a similar position.

Sinema’s move seems, on the one hand, to be an attempt from a politician to get some of the attention she has always appeared to crave, but it is something more than that. Sinema’s decision to become an independent is much more about politics in Arizona than in Washington. Because of her inconsistent support for President Biden’s agenda, and conservative positions on things like the minimum wage and the filibuster, Sinema has earned the ire of Democrats nationally and in Arizona. She is up for reelection, had she stayed a Democrat, would likely have faced a challenge possibly from Ruben Gallego, a popular congressman from Arizona. Gallego would have had a real chance of winning that race and ending Sinema’s time in the senate. That defeat would also have been humiliating for Sinema because sitting senators rarely lose primaries.

Because she is now an independent, Sinema no longer has to worry about a tough primary. Additionally, as an incumbent senator who will have a lot of money, she will have no problem getting on the ballot as an independent. This raises the possibility of a three way race for the senate in Arizona in 2024. Sinema would have a tough time winning that race, but her presence in the race could make it very difficult for the Democrat. There is a fair amount of uncertainty here. The Democrats could decide not to run a candidate, and simply back Sinema as their de facto candidate, but that can only happen if ambitious Arizona Democrats all decide not to run. There is no way to guarantee that.

On the other hand, if a strong Democratic candidate emerges, the only way Sinema would have a chance to get reelected would be if she could move some Republican voters to her independent candidacy, something that would help the Democrat as well. The safe move for the Democrats might seem to be to support Sinema, but there is too much rancor and ambition among Arizona Democrat for that to happen easily. The smart move for Sinema now would be to begin courting moderate Republican voters so that she could have a path to victory in a real three candidate race. While that is not going to be easy. It is certainly doable.

Sinema has spent the last several years in the senate trying to pass egotism off as independence and obstruction off as common sense. She has also developed a relationship with powerful and conservative donors that would be troubling for any politician, particularly a Democrat. However, the problem she has created for herself and for the Arizona Democratic Party also demonstrates a conundrum facing the American political system.

American politics increasingly resembles a parliamentary system in that party control of the legislature is the preeminent concern in every election cycle, most legislation is passed almost entirely on party lines and unless the president has control of both houses of congress, it is almost impossible to pass major legislation. This may be hard to believe, but for much of the postwar era, this was not the case. In those years, more voters split their tickets and many important pieces of legislation were passed, or defeated, with bipartisan coalitions on both sides of the issue. Congress no longer works that way. Instead, the overwhelming majority of both parties vote with their party leadership while those like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, are unusual and therefore very influential.

Sinema’s political challenge is that despite her self-serving rhetoric and independence, there is not a big constituency for her political style or approach in Arizona, a state that, like most of the US is deeply divided on partisan lines. The GOP is dominated by people like Kari Lake and Blake Masters, hardline MAGA Republicans who are way to the right of Sinema. On the other hand, the Democratic Party is still led by establishment moderates like Senator Mark Kelly and Governor-elect Katie Hobbs. While the party is relatively moderate in Arizona, there is reason to think they may have grown tired of Sinema’s self-serving unpredictability. Sinema has created a problem for those Arizona Democrats, but the price she will pay for doing that may be her own political future.

Photo: cc/Gage Skidmore

Lincoln Mitchell