The American President Joseph Biden and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have agreed to meet on June 16th in Switzerland. Because Biden has not yet met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the coming US-Russia summit will be the most significant bilateral meeting of Biden’s still relatively new presidency. The two leaders are not unknown to each other, so this meeting should be more than just an opportunity for Putin and Biden to meet each other in person. There are a substantial number of issues that could be on the agenda for that meeting. That number has grown in recent weeks as Russia has indicated support for the Belarusian government’s hijacking of a Ryanair flight and has also made another cyberattack against the US. Narrowing that agenda to a workable number of issues will be important, but more so will be the tone Biden sets with Putin.

From Putin’s perspective, this meeting will be very different than his interactions with Biden’s predecessor. Unlike Trump, Biden is not going to trust Putin’s word rather than the findings American intelligence agencies. Similarly, whereas Russia supported Trump and sought to help him in his campaigns in both 2016 and, less successfully, in 2020, Biden has never benefited from the Kremlin’s forays into American domestic politics. In short, Russia has lost a client in the White House and that will frame the entire summit. Accordingly, in addition to the myriad issues and tensions between the two countries, for Biden and his party, there is also a sense, among many around Biden, of there being unfinished business from the 2016 election, the SolarWinds hack in 2020 and the relatively new, but enduring and nefarious, ties between the Kremlin and the American far right. Accordingly, Biden’s primary message Putin should be that “there’s a new Sherriff in town.” That is the kind of message that is best delivered in person, but that also needs to be backed up with meaningful actions.

The questions of what happens after that message is delivered and what policy follows from that are much more difficult. As has been the case for most of this century, the bilateral relationship between the US and Russia is characterized by numerous areas of disagreement including Ukraine, Georgia, NATO expansion, human rights and, more recently Russia’s efforts to destabilize western countries, but also areas where cooperation is critical such as nuclear stockpiles, climate change and the current and future pandemics. It is also increasingly clear that while cooperation with Russia is important, it is not going to happen as long as Putin is leading that country. Biden, unlike any of the three other American presidents who have had to work with Vladimir Putin, knows this and has no illusions about the Russian leader.

The new American president has long been part of the more hawkish on Russia wing of the Democratic Party. Additionally, over the last five years the party the voices within the Democratic Party that would like a softer approach with Russia have been substantially transformed by the sleazy relationship between Trump and Putin. The GOP, for its part, is trying to erase the Trump-Putin connection and show that it is not beholden to Russia. Overall, this gives Biden has a fair amount of domestic political strength to bring to the summit, but also underscores the need for a deft political approach.

It is essential that the US send a clear message to Russia that should begin with new targeted sanctions or other similar actions but at the same time Biden cannot afford to have US-Russia relations take up the political bandwidth that is now being occupied by the President’s domestic agenda. Biden must be wary of the Republicans who would like to find a way to talk tough on Russia while keeping any real examination of the Kremlin-Trump-GOP connection from occurring. The GOP would like to distract from their own craven relationship with Russia by portraying Biden as being weak on Russia. We have already seen rumblings of thisbecause of Biden’s lifting of sanctions on Nord Streat 2.

Politically it is probably better for Biden to err on the side of a strong approach to Russia. The Democrats in congress have all but given him carte blanche to do this, while Republicans are unlikely to get any traction with their accusations that Biden is soft on Russia if the President follows this course. However, toughness towards Russia will both further embroil the US in the politics of Europe, Eurasia and the Middle East while also escalating tensions with Russia. Moscow will respond to more sanctions or other decisive actions by the US by continuing its nefarious actions against the US and its allies. That should not be a reason for Biden to weaken his stance, but must be part of the administration’s strategy. The last decade or so has shown that Putin’s aggression, not unlike that of the US, is a constant not a variable. Recognizing that and seeking to counter it is wiser than yet another round of resets that won’t work.

Photo: cc/David Hill

Lincoln Mitchell