This page contains links to recent blogs by Lincoln Mitchell
Today the idea of America as the indispensable, or more charitably, essential, nation is badly frayed. In some respects, the last four years gave the rest of the world, whether friend or foe of the US, a glimpse of what a world without American leadership might look like. No country paid closer attention to that than China, because it is clear by now that if American leadership continues to wane, China is the country that will fill that void.
We will never know how many people Americans died because other Americans couldn’t, or wouldn’t, be bothered to care even a little bit about other people, but the number is probably quite substantial. In addition, it is apparent that the people who refused to wear masks and ignored social distancing protocols not only directly contributed to the deaths of Americans but were free riders who took advantage of an America that was safer because of the sacrifices of others.
Biden’s Foreign Policy Priorities
For most of his career as vice-president and as a member of the US Senate, Joe Biden appeared more interested in foreign policy that domestic politics. That foreign policy expertise and reputation likely played a role in Barack Obama’s decision to make Biden his running mate in 2008. Had Biden become president at another time, or in another political and public health environment, he might have brought that emphasis to the presidency, but that is not possible now. Six weeks or so into Biden’s presidency, it is apparent that he is, wisely and appropriately, spending more of his time and political energy on domestic issues. Biden has not ignored foreign affair as he has sought to persuade America’s allies that the US has moved past the Trump era, had a series of calls with world leaders and recently sanctioned Russia for their treatment of Alexei Navalny. However, it is apparent that Biden’s emphasis remains on domestic policy, primarily his $1.9 trillion Covid-19 recovery bill and getting more Americans vaccinated from the pandemic.
At first glance, this emphasis on domestic policy, which stems from both the numerous domestic crises in the US that include the pandemic, the economic problems precipitated by the pandemic, income inequality, the January 6th insurrection, racial tensions, and from an American population that, due to these multiple crises, is less interested in seeing American involvement in every corner of the globe, may seem like an obstacle for the new President’s foreign policy goals. However, there is another angle for Biden that might make this reality a strategic asset.
The need for Biden to focus on domestic problems give him an odd kind of leverage in the realm of foreign policy. Biden will be able to focus on only a relatively small handful of foreign policy goals, issues and crises. In other words, a more limited presidential involvement will force Biden to set foreign policy priorities. The de facto position of the US is often that everything is a priority, but if everything is a priority then nothing is a priority, and if nothing is a priority then foreign policy is purely reactive.
It is already apparent what some of Biden’s priorities will be. We know that climate change will be a top domestic and foreign policy priority for this administration. Bilateral relationships with both China and Russia are complex and hugely important for the US, so Biden will place some emphasis there. However, the remaining priorities are less clear. For example, the President has already indicated that the Middle East is unlikely to be a top priority.
These limitations may be an asset because they allow the US both to remove itself somewhat from foreign policy challengs in distant countries that may be a of secondary or peripheral importance to the US, while at the same time making Biden’s presence, when he chooses to become personally involved, even more significant. This will not upset the day to day functioning of foreign policy because US foreign policy institutions, particularly now that Biden has returned those bodies to competent leadership, can function well without direct presidential involvement.
Domestic political considerations are part of this framework as well. Back in late 2015 when Donald Trump’s campaign for the White House was just beginning, one of the substantive policy issues where he differed from the majority of the leadership of his party was on the question of how involved the US should be with the rest of the world. Trump’s vision was much more isolationist. This later became his America First policy, a phrase that some may remember was used by the Nazi sympathizers and anti-Semites like Charles Lindbergh who wanted the US to stay out of World War II. This fundamental difference on foreign policy between Trump and the rest of the Republican Party contributed to his winning the nomination. Bernie Sanders’ strong support in both 2016 and 2020 was also, in part, due to his foreign policy views, which were significantly less interventionist than most of the leadership of the Democratic Party. It is clear there is a growing appetite for a reduced US role in the world, but the Covid crisis may have made it, at least for now, something of a necessity.
Biden, a longtime member in good standing of the strongly interventionist foreign policy establishment, was always going to confront the challenge of crafting foreign policy for a country whose population is increasingly looking inward. The multiple domestic policy crises make that a necessity now, but also give Biden an opportunity to do it thoughtfully. If Biden responds to the current dynamic by trying to return to the kind of expansive foreign policy that has characterized most of the last 75 years, but that began to change under the previous administration, he will be fighting an uphill and almost pointless battle. However, crafting an approach to foreign policy that recognizes the reality of America’s challenges and interests while reflecting the needs and priorities of the American people would be very positive way to reframe American foreign policy. This will not be easy, but Joe Biden is uniquely positioned to do it.
Photo: cc/U.S. Secretary of Defense
The recent CPAC convention was the world’s first glimpse of the post-Donald Trump Republican Party and that glimpse made it clear the Republican Party is not post-Trump at all. Donald Trump’s speech on Sunday, which in tone, style and duration was very similar to one of his campaign rallies, capped off a weekend where it was made clear that fealty to Donald Trump, and the alternate reality that he created, is still the price of admission into today’s Republican Party.
In some respects, the challenge facing both Georgia and western allies like the US is the same. Both would benefit from being less wedded to the idea of being right and by taking a more solutions oriented approach. For the GD this would not mean calling for new elections or acceding to the opposition demands, but ratcheting down their rhetoric and recommitting themselves to meaningful democratic reform. For the west, particularly the US, this means recognizing that loud statements suggesting that the GD is solely responsible for the problems of democracy are a cudgel that creates at least as many problems as it solves.
The absence of a consensus that the events in question merit an investigation into the insurrection of January 6th are an obstacle to the process, but to let it preclude any commission or investigation would be to grant a victory to those who seek to minimize the insurrection. Accordingly, finding a nonpartisan way to probe the role of a former president who is still extremely popular in his own party is the essential conundrum facing the Speaker; and her success in this endeavor is important for anybody who believes that we need to learn more about the insurrection and why it occurred.
Faced with overwhelming evidence that Donald Trump incited, encouraged and seemingly enjoyed the violent insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th, 43 of the 50 Republican senators voted to acquit the former president, making it clear that they did not think what Trump did was worthy of impeachment. There are only two reasons why those 43 senators voted to acquit Trump; either they were afraid of a primary from a Trump-backed opponent or they are true believers in what can perhaps best be described as the cult of Trump.
This coming acquittal, born of strong partisanship, combined with a president who, while in office, displayed no interest in democratic norms, fair elections and lawful conduct, has ripped a hole in the theory and structure of the Constitution. In short, we can either acquit Donald Trump or we can continue to have a Constitutional system that checks presidential power and protects our freedoms, but we cannot do both.
False equivalencies are like oxygen to the alternate realities, fealty to Donald Trump and affinity for angry conspiracy theories that now define the Republican Party.
The poisoning of Navalny and the demonstrations around Russia that followed have begun to become an important tension in US-Russia relations. The new Secretary of State Antony Blinken, has condemned the Russian mistreatment of demonstrators and journalists involved in those demonstrations in a tone that suggests the Biden administration, unlike its predecessor, will not be letting the Kremlin call the shots when it comes to US policy on Russia.
he Republican Party facilitated Trump’s rise, enabled and supported his efforts to undermine American democracy and were overwhelmingly silent in the face of his crimes against the Constitution and the American people. If Trump wants to take the Republicans for yet another ride, one that will end earlier and uglier than the first one, it should not be the responsibility of the Democrats to prevent that.
The ceremony, including the evening video, was very well done and even moving at times. It was also a reminder of the potency of American soft power when it is in the right hands. Outside of the US, those who like America and see it as an ally or potential ally saw a country that was diverse, strong, sober and aspiring to deeply admirable values-in short the kind of country you want on your side. For those who see America as a rival or enemy, the inauguration was a reminder that America has the ability to move past the democratic rollback of the Trump era and still has enormous human and other resources.
The view that the Republican Party is about to tear itself apart trying to wrestle with the legacy of the Trump administration is another case of the American political class wanting to believe the crisis is less acute than it really is. If we convince ourselves that Trumpism is on its way out, we can also convince ourselves that American democracy is still strong. This is intellectually lazy and politically dangerous. As partisan and ugly as it sounds, Trumpism is the Republican Party. There is no way to purge the latter of the former. Rather, they both need to be summarily defeated.
The events of January 6th should shake America’s perception of itself to its core. We are now one of many countries where insurgents have stormed the Capitol and where a defeated autocrat has sought to remain in office after a defeat at the polls. This should be a wakeup call that the US is just one of many countries struggling to strengthen and maintain its democratic standing. Sadly, too many of our leaders prefer to continue their jingoistic slumber.
From long before the first vote in the 2020 election was cast, it was apparent that Donald Trump was not going to leave office peacefully. The violence in Washington Wednesday is the direct result of Trump’s rants, threats, fantastical thinking and angry dishonest Tweets, not just since the election, but since he became a public figure. The people who stormed the capitol did so with more than a nod and a wink, more like a cheer and a thumbs up, not just from the president, but from his enablers-every single one of them, even those who in the last few weeks have sought to distance themselves from Trump.
As the Covid-19 pandemic now enters its second year, it is useful to assess its global impact. As of New Year’s Day, roughly 1.8 million people around the world had died of Covid-19. However, the death toll from Covid-19 only tells a small part of the story because had people around the world not radically changed their behavior, that number would have been much, perhaps exponentially, higher. Thus, theimpact of the Covid-19 on things like economic activity, mental health, years of education lost and the like are major parts of the toll of this pandemic.
The election was a clear victory for the Democrats, but while the electoral college made Biden’s victory seem bigger than it was, the senate map and the way many states are gerrymandered, benefited the Republicans. This is significant, because it points to the intuitive conclusion that voters responded to this campaign by hardening their partisan positions and, in the huge majority of cases, voting a straight party ticket.
Over the last few years, it has become increasingly apparent that the three biggest threats to American security, and that of most countries, are climate change, cyberattacks and disease.
The Republican Party is deeply invested in this false equivalency between 2016 and 2020. It remains essential not just for Trump and those closest to the 2016 campaign, but for many in the GOP who deliberately mislead the American people about the extent of Russia’s role in 2016, that the truth about 2016 remain obscured and that the question of holding people accountable for what they did in 2016 remains buried.
The political, medical, financial and logistical difficulties may be overwhelming, but global leadership is only meaningful if it helps achieve the most difficult goals. For the US, leading a massive international vaccination is a rare confluence of the national interest and the ethically right thing to do. If the Biden administration can take this on and succeed, it will repair the damage of the Trump administration and make it clear to the rest of the world that American leadership is more than just a platitude.