This page contains links to recent blogs by Lincoln Mitchell
Putting the more than fifteen million unemployed Americans back to work in the midst of an ongoing recession is not an easy task, so faulting the administration for not coming up with a brilliant and politically achievable plan for doing this is a little unfair. Nonetheless, the administration's position on jobs has at times suggested an unexpectedly poor understanding of the impact of the economic downturn on ordinary Americans.
Alomar and Larkin were among the very best ever at their positions and, petty biases regarding first time inductees aside, should take their rightful place in Cooperstown. McGriff and Martinez are more complicated candidates, and raise some interesting questions, but also deserve to be elected.
The Obama administration began qualifying the President’s proposed timeline for beginning the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan almost immediately after his speech last week. Administration officials such as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Defense Bob Gates have since then made it clear that the July 2011 date for beginning the drawdown is only a target. A closer reading of Obama’s speech suggests that Obama did not really commit to a withdrawal date, only to a date to “begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan.” This could mean anything because the extent and speed of the withdrawal remains unspecified.
There were moments during President Obama's speech last night when if you closed your eyes, imagined the grammar a little mangled and a few words mispronounced, you could easily make the mistake of thinking you were listening to President Bush. Not only was the announced troop increase what one might have expected from the Bush administration, but much of the rationale for the decision was as well.
Comparisons between the wars in Afghanistan and Vietnam have grown stronger in recent weeks. While this concern has been raised, often with the buzzword quagmire, about every conflict since the end of the U.S. effort in Vietnam, it is not without reason that this is mentioned with regards to Afghanistan. It is hard to ignore the similarities between the two conflicts. In both cases, the U.S. got involved in a war far away for which there was no easily foreseeable resolution. Obama, like another Democratic president more than four decades ago, was convinced, to some extent by his own generals, that more troops would make the difference and drew the U.S. further into the conflict. The Vietnam War destroyed Johnson’s presidency and overshadowed some of his impressive accomplishments on domestic issues. Critics of the war in Afghanistan, many of whom are supporters of the current president, do not want to see the same thing happen to Obama.
This is one of the reasons why Obama’s views on Afghanistan are so puzzling. Adding troops in Afghanistan to pursue a mission that looks more difficult every day is the perfect recipe for overextending the U.S. and accelerating our declining power and influence, at a time when we cannot afford it. It is a policy that simply does not recognize how the world, and the ability of the U.S. to change the world, has changed. The threat of terrorism is real, but a policy of keeping the U.S. safe from terrorism and expanding the war and rebuilding in Afghanistan are not at all the same thing.
The recent attacks on the decision by President Obama and Attorney General Holder to try Khalid Sheik Mohammed (KSM), one of the masterminds of the September 11th terrorist attacks, constitute one of those political moments where partisan sniping dominates everything else. For many Americans where KSM is tried is something of a non-issue a technicality that has little bearing on their lives, so long as justice is served. However, for many Republicans, none more so than former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani it is an opportunity to get some media attention and take a cheap shot at the president.
Lincecum, known as “The Freak” because of his size and unorthodox pitching delivery has been an extraordinary pitcher during his first two years plus in the Major Leagues. During this time, he has pitched 598.2 innings striking out 671 while walking 217 with an ERA of 2.90. While these numbers are extremely impressive, they do not provide much of a context. Lincecum’s numbers look better in a comparative context. Only 24 pitchers have pitched 550 or more innings with an ERA+ of 135 or better before the age of 25. Lincecum’s career ERA+ is 152. The only players who had better ERA+ for their age, with 550 or more innings pitched were Walter Johnson and Ed Reulbach. The closest postwar pitcher was Tom Seaver whose ERA+ at a comparable age was 149.
While these are probably wise guidelines, they overlook another very real possibility. What if things move in a different direction in China? What happens if an overheated economy, rising domestic instability and the extraordinarily difficult conditions under which tens of millions of Chinese toil combine render China’s current rate of growth unsustainable. From the outside China continues to look like an unequivocal success story, but this is to a great extent a triumph of media repression over reality. Many of those glittering skyscrapers remain largely devoid of tenants. China’s authoritarian system is fraying as numerous demonstrations occur annually in both Han and non-Han parts of China. China’sworkers are among the most oppressed workers on the planet, living in dormitories, seeing their children once a year and in many cases, poorly paid and forced to move illegally from city to city to find work. If Karl Marx came back to life and took a global tour he would almost certainly conclude that China is currently the country in the world most ready for Communist revolution.
For some people, the identity forged by allegiance to a favorite sports team is a way to remember the city where they grew up, a parent or childhood in general. This is one of the great things about being a fan, but to read anything more than this into one’s choice of baseball teams, while tempting, would be a mistake.
When Robinson Cano tossed the ball to Mark Texeira for the final out of the sixth game of the World Series, the Yankees won their 27th World Series and fifth since Major League Baseball first used the current expanded playoff system in 1995. The Yankees have now won one third of all World Series since 1995, an impressive accomplishment given how difficult it is to survive a three round playoff system. Clearly the Yankees have benefited from a front office that is willing and able to spend the money needed to put a strong team on the field every year, but just as clearly, there are additional explanations for the Yankees’ success.
The passage of the health care bill is good news for President Obama and the Democrats, but it is more a case of avoiding defeat than of scoring a decisive victory. Given that the Democrats have control of almost 60% of the seats in the House of Representatives, by a margin of 257-178, and that all that was needed was a simple majority, this was not the greatest challenge facing Obama's health care reform. However, had the bill not passed the house, it would have been a stinging defeat for the president and his party.
The ability to persuade foreign leaders, particularly those who are allies, to support the U.S., both in big issues such as the war in Iraq, and more specific issues such as combating terrorism in one place or not initiating conflict, is a key piece of U.S. foreign policy. The ability to persuade rests on the critical assumption that there are benefits to helping the U.S. and costs to not doing that. These costs and benefits, however, need to be moderate in nature. A foreign policy that, for example, sought to cut off all assistance to countries that did not support the U.S. on everything would be bullying and ineffective. Similarly, it is essential to recognize that sometimes allies will have legitimate interests that differ from those of the U.S.
The ninth inning: I am signing off for the night, unless something dramatic happens. Was fun chatting.
Bottom of the eighth: It has been that kind of series for Swisher. Jeter, as we were just reminded, is the all-time post-season hit leader. For what it is worth the all time non-Yankee World Series hit leader is the Fordham Flash-Frankie Frisch.
Top of the eighth: I don’t think too many Yankee fans thought Damaso Marte would be a big part of their post-season success. At this phase of his career, Rivera gives up runs, but rarely melts down. It is beginning to rain in the Bronx, but not yet in Northern Manhattan. I assume Selig will allow this game to be finished tonight.
Bottom of the seventh: With the bottom of the Yankee lineup completely silent, this is probably their last scoring opportunity. If this ends tonight, A-Rod will have had a strange series. Much fewer big hits than in the ALCS, but in the middle of a lot of rallies. Cano looks about as bad as a big league hitter can look. He makes Texeira look like Reggie Jackson.
Top of the seventh: The Phillies need baserunners here, but if the good Joba has shown up, it could be a short inning for them. This is likely Joba’s last batter, so he could salvage a disappointing season here. A walk to Victorino is not the way Joba wanted to end his season. Perhaps Marte can bail him out. The need to go to Marte in the 7th all but ensures that Rivera will be asked to get six outs. Girardi has said that Rivera is ready to do this, but even for Rivera six outs is a lot, particularly if this lead gets smaller. The way Marte has been throwing, he might be able to get through the eighth which would make Rivera even stronger in the ninth.
Bottom of the sixth: Swisher had seemed to have lost his ability to draw walks this World Series before this at bat. That had been one of his biggest strengths during the regular season. With Hairston in the number two hole, a bunt from Gardner makes less sense.
Top of the sixth: This is a very important inning for Philadelphia. If Pettitte gets through the middle of the lineup without giving up a run, the countdown of outs can begin in earnest. With all the attention on the starting pitching, little attention has been paid to how the Yankees will use their bullpen, but I would assume, and hope, that Girardi will use Chamberlain and Robertson to get to Rivera, spotting Marte against Utley and Howard. The Phil brothers may be done for the year. Reggie Jackson just breathed a sigh of relief. Howard’s home run was kind of inevitable, but it may not be enough. Neither Pettitte or Martinez pitched particularly well, but Pettitte pitched better. He did about as well as the Yankees could have hoped. If the Yankees hold on, it will be a victory won by their bats. With the lefties out of the way for at least an inning, if Joba is throwing well, he can them to Rivera.
Bottom of the fifth: For what its worth, Girardi’s best move as manager this year may have come in spring training when he put Jeter back in the leadoff spot. Girardi should get credit for looking at OBP rather than simply batting Jeter second because he is a middle infielder. On a related note, Jeter may break the all-time Yankee stolen base record next year. It is currently held by none other than Rickey Henderson. The Phillies need a loogy to get Matsui out here. Another RBI by Matsui and this game will get very short very quickly for the Phillies. That plan did not work out so well for Philadelphia. Turns out the Yankees are pretty good even though Cliff Lee beat them twice. Posada this series seems to have a principled position that he only gets hits in clutch situations.
Top of the fifth: Pettitte’s control problems tonight have made this a tough game for him. The Phillies have real power and they Yankees still need at least nine more outs before Rivera. Rollins hit into a rare double play, so Pettitte survived another inning. With all the ink about how Pedro has become a wily, clever pitcher, Pettitte is for the third time in as many starts getting by without his best stuff.
Bottom of the fourth: With Hairston in the number two spot, the Yankee lineup has a different feel. It puts a little pressure on Posada-Gardner to contribute a little bit today as the top half of the lineup is not as solid. Robinson Cano is now literally not hitting his weight. Nice to see Mayor Bloombers who, as it turns out actually did need to spend all that money to get reelected yesterday, enjoying the game. It is a shande that the mayor of New York is a Red Sox fan.
Top of the fourth: Another injury for the Yankees. The Yankees have a useful bench, but not actual depth. They have pinch runners, good defensive ballplayers, but nobody who can really hit other than Gardner, who was already in the lineup. Hairston is a big downgrade from Damon. If Pettitte can follow one half inning in which the Yankees score by shutting down the Phillies, it would change the tenure of the game a lot. Tim McCarver just said that too much is made of pitchers starting on three days rest. If he really felt that way, maybe he should have talked about something else during the last 48 hours.
Bottom of the third: Gardner looked terrible against Martinez. He is a better player than that. Martinez has probably gone through 50 pitches and is not yet through the third. It will be interesting if Manuel has to patch it together tonight because if it goes well, he will have to do the same thing tomorrow night. This is Texeira’s moment, let’s see how he does. A seal on every rock for A-Rod. Nice bit of hitting by Matsui.
Top of the third: What would the announcers talk about if Pettitte were going on four days of rest. It seems like they have discussed this ad nauseum. It is a convenient topic because and an easy way to explain a potential bad outing for Pettitte, but there is no way to prove this. If Pettitte pitches well, will anybody say it was because he was on short rest? If Ruiz scores, will Yankee fans stop eating Dunkin’ Donuts?
It is interesting watching a series where so many key players, Texeira, Howard, Cano etc. are slumping but where the managers are doing so little. Manuel and Girardi get some credit for not panicking, but this is also a result of the post-season rosters and stability of both lineups. The Yankees and Phillies do not have a lot of plan Bs. However, if Pena pinch runs with none out in the seventh, Girardi will be making a big mistake.
Bottom of the second: Amazing to see A-Rod not take strike one as he seems to have done ever plate appearance this series. Walking A-Rod in front of three Yankee lefties could be trouble, but Cano seems to have checked out for the series. Has anybody noticed how both Matsui and Damon have swings any decent Little League coach would change right away? Getting to Pedro early is big for the Yankees, but they now need to get the big inning, which they have had trouble doing through much of the post-season.
Pedro made one mistake to Matsui, but gets credit for keeping the Phillies in the game. A two run lead is unlikely to be enough in this game.
Top of the second: Pettitte is throwing a lot of pitches and not getting ahead of too many hitters, but if he is going to walk anybody, Werth is the guy. Tim McCarver just mentioned that the Yankees have quieted Philadelphia’s left-handed bats. That may come as news to Chase Utley. Pettitte looks like he is struggling, but that is kind of the look he has on his face all the time when he is pitching.
Bottom of the first: Texeira is having the kind of series where a fly ball to the warning track counts as a successful at at bat. The Yankees benefit more from coming back to their park because Matsui’s bat is a real asset. Without Molina as Burnett’s personal catcher, the Yankee lineup is as deep as it should be. Gardner in the number nine spot may even be an improvement on Melky.
Top of the first: The left side of the Yankee infield is interesting for many reasons. One is that both Jeter and A-Rod have strong arms and limited range. Utley’s first at bat will set a tone. The Yankees would be foolish to throw at him and probably won’t. Nice first half inning for the Yankees.
Pre-game: The national media, being both Yankee-centric and Yankee-phobic, seems to have already written the Yankees’ obituary. You would not know from listening to the analysis or reading most newspapers that even if the Yankees lose tonight, tomorrow’s game will pit CC Sabbathia against either Cliff Lee on two days rest or a whatever combination of pitchers Charlie Manuel can put together.
My sense is that Pettitte needs to start off strongly, but so does the Yankee offense. Pettitte is, at this point in his career, against a lineup like the Phillies’, good for six innings and four runs. If he does that, the game will be decided by the Yankee offense and Pedro’s pitching. Pedro is a bit of a wild card here as he could either be very strong or out of the game by the fourth inning. If is is a low scoring game, the Phillies may win, but if it is high scoring, the Yankees should come out on top.
The election of Barack Obama on November 4th, 2008 was unlike any election day in recent memory. It was not only a day that changed America -- all presidential elections do that -- but it was a day laden with symbolic, and real, meaning. The image of Barack Obama and his family walking onto the stage in Grant Park in Chicago after Obama had been declared the winner of the election will be remembered for years. For many Americans, the day Obama was elected was a day of excitement and hope which had been all but forgotten in our political life.
The desire to downplay the import of luck is natural. It is disturbing to think that two teams work so hard for so many months, only to have the championship decided by a matter of luck, but that is often what happens. It is more disturbing, however, to imply that teams lose because their players don’t try hard enough, which is exactly what is implied when winning is explained by greater determination.
The decision of so many leaders of the Democratic Party to support a senator who while opposing most of the party on an increasing number of important issues, was still a colleague and, presumably, a friend, was a mistake, but that mistake was compounded by the failure of any of these prominent Democrats to insist that Lieberman back the winner of the primary before agreeing to support him in that primary. This kind of agreement is very common in primaries and one of the things which helps hold the party together. By not demanding this as a condition for their endorsement, all these Democratic leaders opened the doors for Lieberman, after losing the primary to Lamont, to continue to contest the general election. Most of those prominent Democrats endorsed Lamont after he won the primary, but because they had not done their political work in advance, had much less leverage with Lieberman as they should have.
Citizens and leaders in Eastern Europe cannot be faulted for being worried about Russian policy in the region, particularly given the aftermath of the Russia-Georgia War of 2008. However, there is a danger of several issues being conflated with this fear. The serious concerns about Russia often contribute to a somewhat unfounded fear that the US is going to abandon its allies and principles in Eastern Europe as part of its goal of “resetting” relations with Russia. This fear is not always rational and has not been assuaged by anything President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton or others in the administration have said about the refusal of the U.S. to make any tradeoffs of this kind.
While the depth of the Yankee lineup may give them a slight edge, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are sufficiently strong home run hitters to make that edge only marginal. There is, however, one more major difference between the lineups that gives a greater edge to the Yankees; and it has nothing to do with power. The top of the Yankee lineup is one of the few real advantages either team has in this series. Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon, posted on base percentages of .406 and .365 this season. These numbers dwarf those of the Phillies first two hitters Rollins (.296) and Shane Victorino (.358). In a short series, if these four players perform as they usually do, there will be a slight but unambiguous advantage for the Yankees, one that may lead to a few more runs for New York and fewer big innings for the Phillies. Ironically, in a World Series that pits the top home run hitting teams in each league against each other, it may be the top of the order that makes the difference.
The Yankees beat a tough Angels team in the ALCS, moreover, largely because some of the highest paid players in the game including, Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter played great baseball However, they also won for other, albeit more quotidian, reasons. The Yankees beat the Angels because they played fundamentally sound baseball and were smarter on the bases and in the field then their opponents. It doesn’t take a high priced free agent, although Vladimir Guerrero was one, to know not to get doubled off first base on a soft line drive to right field. Players who make less then ten million dollars a year should be able to throw to first and catch throws to first cleanly. These and other mistakes were a big part of the Angels undoing.