Lincoln Mitchell

Blog

This page contains links to recent blogs by Lincoln Mitchell

Why 2010 Will Not Be 1994 →

Republican talking points comparing the upcoming 2010 midterm elections with those in 1994 are, on the surface, somewhat persuasive. The basic Republican argument is that in both 1992 and 2008, a Democratic President and Congress was swept into power; in both 1993 and 2009 that Democratic President spent an awful lot of time on health care; we didn't like Clinton; and we don't like Obama. This outline is filled in with references to Democratic extremism, socialism and perhaps most absurdly, the alleged failure of the Obama administration to reach out to Republicans.

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Does the UN Report on the Gaza War Accomplish Anything

These nature of the findings of these reports do, however, raise the question of what the real purpose of the reports were. The stated purpose of the reports was simply to determine the truth about the origins of one war and the conduct of another, but it is hard to take this entirely at face value. It is difficult not to come to the conclusion that a major purpose of the both reports was to provide a rationale for both institutions to pursue policies to which they had largely already committed. This is more true of the EU report because the UN doesn’t usually pursue policies in that sense.

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Why the Team with the Two Most Dominant Starters Always Wins the World Series-Except When It Doesn't

It seems that one thing most baseball observers understand about the post-season is that having two dominant starters is the key to winning the World Series. Two dominant starters, because of the extra days of rest, can start almost half of there team’s games and carry their teammates to championship. We know this because this is what Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling did with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001. Spending too much time trying to figure out what happened in other recent post-seasons is, apparently, not worth our time.

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Seinfeld Elections: Why Democracy Needs Conflict

Democracy works best when people in society disagree on a range of issues. If one issue, an obvious example of this would be ethnicity, dominates in a country, than election outcomes will be the same each time and the government will either be paralyzed or permanent winners and permanent losers will emerge. When this happens, democracy falters because, in the former case, the state is immobilized, and in the latter case, the permanent losers see no democratic way out of their condition. Iraq, Bosnia and Lebanon are all examples of countries where ethnic identity has held sway as the major issue which determines how people vote.

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For MVP, Jeter Should Come Up Short Again

Jeter is putting up a very good year for a shortstop, but certainly not the best in recent memory from that position. For this reason, Mauer is likely to, and probably should, win the MVP. If Mauer had spent 130 games or so as a DH, while missing a few weeks with injuries, the Jeter-Mauer question would be an interesting one, but Mauer would still be my choice. The 110 games or so Mauer spent behind the plate this year only make it an easier choice.

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The Pointlessness of the Racism Debate →

The question of whether or not some of the attacks on President Obama are racist is not likely to end anytime soon. There is little that can be done to persuade some supporters of President Obama that comparing the African American president to a witch doctor is not racist, or that the disrespect shown to Obama during his address to congress on health care would not have been on display if the president had been white. Similarly, critics of the president will continue to insist that this is simply all about the issues and that race has nothing to do with it.

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Changing Course on Missile Defense: Why Refusing to Pick a Fight with Moscow is Not a Sign of Weakness

Obama’s decision to stop pursuing this is being described by critics as surrendering to Russia and a sign of the American president’s weakness. When viewed through the narrow lens of competition and machismo, this is not an unreasonable conclusion, but when the lens is expanded to include the actual interests of the U.S. and its allies, things look a little different.

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The Silence of the Republicans →

If anybody was so hopeful that they believed that the Republican Party leadership did not like the level of nastiness we have seen in recent months, they must now abandon that hope. It is hard to imagine that had a Democratic member of either house of Congress shouted "you lie" at President Bush during an address to congress in 2007-2008 we would have heard silence from Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid of the kind we have heard from the Republican leadership. Importantly, while it can be argued, although probably wrongly, that the anti-Obama fervor is no worse than the anti-Bush feelings of a few years ago, it cannot be argued that the two parties have engaged in this rhetoric in the same way.

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Lincecum v. Carpenwright: Who has the Best Starting PItcher Duo in the National League

Among these four aces, Lincecum has more strikeouts, complete games and shutouts and a lower ERA, while pitching the second most innings, Wainwright is first. Lincecum is also second, to Carpenter, in fewest walks plus hits over nine innings. Carpenter and Wainwright would both be respectable Cy Young choices, and together with an Albert Pujols led Cardinal offense could help the Cardinals play well into October, but the best NL pitcher, and the best top of the rotation so far in 2009, have both been in San Francisco.

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The Ownership Deception

Rumsfeld’s remarks are so bizarre because they occurred after, if not during, an invasion of Iraq by the U.S. during which Iraq’s government was destroyed. Whether or not one supported that invasion, it is reasonably clear that less than four years later, the U.S. still had a fair amount of responsibility for Iraq’s reconstruction and security. While Rumsfeld’s remarks were clearly premature in post-war Iraq, there are many cases around the world where the question of when international, or U.S., responsibility should stop is far more difficult to resolve.

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Why Playoff Rosters Need to Be Different

It is only a slight exaggeration to say that success in the regular season in determined by the back end of pitching rotations, but that in the playoffs these pitchers barely matter. Successful regular season teams frequently have strong number four and five starters who, while not expected to shut down opposing offenses, can keep their team in the game. Teams with genuinely good four and five starters in the regular season usually are very difficult to beat over the course of a long season. Similarly, good offenses which can consistently beat up on the back ends of opposing rotations can give their teams a real advantage in reaching the post-season.

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Who Will Be Hurt if the Democrats Pass Health Care? →

Eight months or so into the Obama presidency, it is pretty clear that Obama's bipartisan efforts have not been, and will almost certainly not be, fruitful. Critics of Obama might claim this is because Obama has already been captured by the far left of his party, while people more sympathetic to the president might point out that the Republican Party has been captured by an angry and out of touch right wing that has driven the party to irrelevancy. The question this raises for the Obama administration is whether or not it is now prudent to abandon efforts at bipartisanship and seek to pass major legislation, most obviously health care, alone.

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Obama+Afghanistan=Bush+Iraq=Johnson+Vietnam

And yet Obama has already shown in his presidency that his views on Afghanistan are more than just a campaign tactic. The easy thing for Obama would have been to lump Afghanistan in with Iraq as failed Bush policies and instead begin a slow–some might say too slow–pullback of troops in Afghanistan, similar to that in Iraq. And yet it seems that Obama’s assessment of national security concerns made this option less appealing. Obama’s reward for this approach is that Afghanistan may do for Obama what Iraq did for Bush, what Vietnam did for Johnson, what Afghanistan itself did for the Soviet Union, or whatever other analogy you like.

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The Shutdown is No Longer Only a Domestic Issue

In the very big picture, the shutdown is a reminder that the US is no longer the dominant global hegemon to whom the rules and limitations facing other countries do not apply. It turns out the US also can be hamstrung by institutions and structures and that ideological fanaticism can damage the country's economy and global standing. The irony, or perhaps tragedy is a better word, is that the same faction who is crippling our government today, will be screaming about American exceptionalism tomorrow.

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How Andy Pettitte's Hall of Fame Chances were Hurt by Going to Houston

Andy Pettitte probably won’t and probably shouldn’t go into the Hall of Fame. However, the image of Pettitte as the all-time Yankee leader in wins and strikeouts who fits into a long history of great Yankee lefties who spent their whole career with the franchise might have been enough to get Pettitte significantly more consideration. However, that is not the narrative at which voters will be looking. Instead they will see a pitcher who is not one of the very few great players to spend their career with one team, who is second or third, but not first in a few categories for Yankee pitchers and who was just a little too close to Roger Clemens during the latter’s steroid period.

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Afghanistan-How Much Election Fraud is Okay?

As allegations of election fraud, intimidation, violence and ballot stuffing in the recent Afghan elections increase it seems as if the election in Afghanistan is in that gray area where there was a fair amount of fraud, but it is not yet clear whether there was enough for it to have changed the outcome of the election. This puts the U.S. and other international actors in a complicated position. It is not uncommon in elections in semi-democratic, semi-authoritarian, post-conflict, or as in Afghanistan, mid-conflict countries for some amount of mid-level election fraud and misuse of resources to be discounted by international actors because “the voice of the people was heard”, or to phrase it less delicately “the guy who would’ve won (usually the incumbent), won anyway.”

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Making Sense of Joba's Inning Limit

The problem with the inning limit, estimated at 150-160, the Yankees have imposed on Joba Chamberlain for the season is not the number of innings, but that there never seemed to be a plan for implementing the limit. Did Yankee management really think that starting Chamberlain every fifth day for half the season and every sixth to tenth day for the second half of the season was a good idea? Did they really think that this was a good way to get the most out of him in the post-season? On August 1st, Chamberlain looked like he could be the Yankees number two starter in October. Thus far in August, he has pitched his way into the number four spot in the post-season rotation; and there is real danger the Yankees will not want to use him at all in October.

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Remembering Pete Rose the Player

Whenever Rose’s name comes up, it is usually in the context of discussing the ban. Meanwhile memories of Rose the player have begun to fade. Rose was not only a great player, and in many respects the iconic player of his generation, but a very unusual one. No player in history has had a career quite like Rose’s. As a player, Rose is now primarily remembered for being baseball’s all time hit leader, but even that only tells part of the story.

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Health Care Reform and the Democratic Party →

The debate within the Democratic Party over health care reform generally, and the public option specifically, raises several bigger questions about the party. These questions predate the health care debate, but the controversy surrounding the extent of the Democratic Party's commitment to extend health care to as many Americans as possible brings this into sharp focus. If the Democrats do not pass a meaningful health care bill, with a public option it will be hard to answer the question of what the purpose of the Democratic Party is.

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