Lincoln Mitchell

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This page contains links to recent blogs by Lincoln Mitchell

Posted in: US Politics

President Obama's Marriage Equality Mistake →

It is difficult look at Governor Cuomo at this time and not be reminded of President Obama's failure to support marriage equality. Today, Barack Obama is to the right of the New York State Senate on civil rights. The president's failure to support marriage equality remains baffling. The explanation that Obama has taken this position because of concerns about his chances at reelection in 2012 is the simplest rationale for Obama's position, but it is not altogether satisfactory.

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Why Huntsman and Perry Aren't the Answer Either

The problem the Republicans have created for themselves is that by empowering the far right of their party to lead the battle against Obama in 2009 and 2010, they have unleashed a flood of candidates who enjoy high name recognition and pockets of intense support on the far right, but no broad support from the electorate more generally. More damagingly, for the Republican Party, the far right may be sufficiently powerful to stop the nomination of any candidate who deviates from their extremist views. This is the test which Romney and the party face; and it cannot be avoided by Jon Huntsman or Rick Perry, jumping into the race fresh from Texas, Beijing, or anyplace else.

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Why Should Anthony Weiner Remain in Congress →

Instead of asking whether or not Representative Anthony Weiner should resign, it is more useful to ask if he should stay in Congress. The arguments for Weiner to resign are reasonably clear, including points based on morality, that his behavior is simply too sleazy and disturbing, legality, that the communications he had with young women, particularly if they are minors, constitute a form of harassment, practicality, that he will have a hard time focusing on the work of being in Congress if his time is taken up with the fallout from the scandal, and politics, that his continued presence in Congress weakens the Democrats chance of winning back the House of Representatives in November. These are all strong points, but could be outweighed if there was a compelling reason for Weiner to stay in Congress.

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Sarah Palin the Entertainer vs. Sarah Palin the Politician →

The bus tour could also be simply a preface to Palin's next reality show, talk show, book or other product. Some candidates write books to help raise their profiles as candidates; some entertainers take up issues or causes to make themselves be seen as more serious, but Palin just keeps talking and drawing attention to herself as both an entertainer and a politician, like some weird far right Energizer Bunny that never stops, but always keeps her options open.

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The Republican Party-Abandoning the Center →

A few months ago, Paul Ryan was considered something of a rising star in the Republican Party as he sought to address the federal deficit through serious, non-ideological approaches. Ryan created an image for himself as a thoughtful centrist interested in tough solutions to tough problems. It turns out that was mostly just spin. As people became more familiar with Ryan's plan, it became clear that he was essentially just another Republican seeking to balance the budget by placing an unfair burden on lower income Americans. Like most in his party, Ryan sought to cut programs for poor Americans while refusing to raise taxes on the wealthiest, thus forcing those who have already sacrificed the most, to sacrifice even more.

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Romney and the Decline of the Tea Party →

With Mitch Daniels confirming that he will not run for president, and new polls showing that Mitt Romney is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2012, there is a real possibility that the 2012 primary will be over before it really starts. There is a small possibility that one of the candidates like Michele Bachmann or Newt Gingrich will galvanize the far right and make a race of it, and an even smaller possibility that a new candidate like Chris Christie will make a late entrance into the race and win the nomination, but with about eight months before the first vote is cast, Romney is increasingly likely to be the nominee.

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Romney's Work Beginning to Pay Off →

Romney has done his work relatively quietly while the decisions by Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee not to run and the disastrous beginning to Newt Gingrich's quixotic bid for the White House have received considerably more coverage in recent weeks. Of these three stories, Huckabee's decision not to run is the most significant. Huckabee is a good politician with excellent communication skills and opinions that would have resonated well with the conservative Republican base. Huckabee also had a very difficult time building an organization and raising money in 2008 and evinced little enthusiasm for doing that again in 2012, seemingly preferring the comfort and compensation of his work for Fox News.

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The Republican Money Problems →

During the last few months a very strange political development has occurred. Most of the Republican candidates seeking to unseat President Obama in November have encounteredserious trouble raising money. By April of 2007, Hillary Clinton had raised $36 million; and Barack Obama had raised $24 million. No Republican candidate today has even approached these totals. Some Republican candidates, like Mitt Romney, can finance much of their campaigns themselves, but financing an entire presidential campaign is extremely expensive and should not be necessary for candidates, particularly Republican candidates, who enjoy significant political support.

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The Death of Bin Laden a Definite Game Changer Maybe →

Keeping America safe from Jihadist terror remains a complex task, which may be slightly easier, particularly in the short term, without Osama bin Laden. It still requires a delicate combination of domestic security, some use of force, sincere efforts to win hearts and minds, good intelligence work and an awareness of how US actions are perceived by many outside of our country. The killing of bin Laden, while a positive development to be sure, addresses none of these things, but more significantly provides a moment for our leaders to pause, recognize this important victory and determine what direction to take the fight against terrorism.

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Will We Have Another Election with No Discussion of Jobs? →

It is obviously in the interest of the American people for jobs to be at the center of the upcoming presidential election. If both candidates, and parties, focused on job creation during the campaign, offering competing visions to address the issue of job creation, than the issue that dominates the lives and outlook of many Americans would get the attention it deserves. A campaign in which joblessness is viewed as a central problem that needs to be addressed is not likely because, while it may be what the people want and need, it does not help either of the major parties, or their likely, and in the case of the Democrats, all but certain, nominees.

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For Obama, Being Lucky May Be More Important Than Being Good →

A thoughtful, calculating Trump concerned about his image and unwilling to throw away money on hopeless causes would have either positioned himself similarly to the way he did in 2000 or would have abandoned this campaign already, but Trump has done neither. This suggests that Trump may be no longer be able to exercise sound judgment and may in fact run for president, while still having little chance of winning. If that happens, the Republicans will have a big problem on their hands as the candidate who, even in this field,stands out for his weakness as a general election candidate, would be the only candidate with enough money to stay in until the end. If it is true that it is better to be lucky than good, than President Obama may find himself in good shape in November of 2012.

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Will Foreign Policy Be a Campaign Issue in 2012

American politics in the post-Bush era have again entered a period where there is, for the most part, a foreign policy consensus between the two major parties. This consensus, however, is not held throughout the electorate creating an opening for a clever White House aspirant who is willing not just to take on President Obama, but the leadership of the Republican Party as well. If this candidate does not emerge, it is likely that foreign policy will remain in the background throughout the 2012 campaign.

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Republicans Aren't Falling in Line in 2012 →

The Republican nomination, on the other hand, for the first time in many years, has neither a clear frontrunner, nor somebody who can legitimately lay claim to having paid their dues and waited their turn as, for example, was the case with John McCain in 2008, Bob Dole in 1996 or George H.W. Bush in 1988. The candidate who comes closest to meeting this description is Mitt Romney who finished second to McCain in 2008, but has not been a mainstay of Republican politics for very long and was an unknown outside of his home state a mere five years ago. Haley Barbour and Newt Gingrich, unlike Romney, have been prominent national Republicans for years, but have failed to mobilize sufficient support to plausibly present themselves as frontrunners.

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I'm In, but Without Any Enthusiasm →

While the good news for Democrats is that Obama may be in a relatively strong position to get reelected, the bad news for progressives is that Obama is now clearly just another Democrat with little real ability to inspire or bring about real change. The reasons to vote for Obama are clear: He will make better appointments to the Supreme Court than a Republican president would; he will stand up to the most extreme and dangerous proposals from a John Boehner-led House of Representatives and a U.S., Senate which could be taken over by the Republicans in 2012 or 2014; and he will pay more attention to issues regarding the environment, civil rights and organized labor, although will probably not really fight for any of this. There are, of course, other reasons as well, but the basic point remains that we need to vote for the guy who is disappointing and uninspiring because the other options are worse.

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Whither the Health Care Reform Bill? →

March 23rd was the one year anniversary of the passage of the health care reform bill. This date came and went with very little fanfare or media attention. The anniversary was overlooked partially because of the import of today's issues including the no fly zone in Libya, the aftermath of the tsunami in Japan and the ongoing budget fights in Washington, but it was also overlooked because a year after its passage, it is increasingly clear that the health care bill may not have been as significant as it seemed, and was presented, at the time. The text messages sent from the Obama political operation celebrating the anniversary of this bill, and suggesting its historic significance, largely served to underscore that a year after passage, the health care reform bill is not really historic at all.

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Republican Positioning for 2012 →

The absence of a clear front runner has encouraged numerous politicians, and at least one non-politician, to begin to explore a bid for the nomination. The breadth, and in some respects absurdity of this field, is striking. It includes Mitt Romney, a businessman turned liberal governor turned right wing ideologue, Newt Gingrich, a scandal plagued 1980s-1990s futurist, Haley Barbour, a former governor of Mississippi and chair of the RNC who would not have looked out of place railing against desegregation half a century ago, Mike Huckabee, a friendly sounding but often frightening preacher turned politician, Sarah Palin whose media savvy should not be underestimated, Michele Bachman who seems to take a sophomoric joy in saying every provocative and radical thought that pops into her head, Donald Trump a real estate developer, television personality and blowhard all rolled into one and many more and Tim Pawlenty who looks like the normal viable candidate on paper, but has failed to break through more broadly.

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The Tsunami and the Future →

The combination of continued population growth, the rumblings of global climate change and consistently increasing demands for all resources including energy, but also for water and land makes all of us particularly vulnerable to natural disasters like the one we have just witnessed. The tsunami should help demonstrate the import of investing in infrastructure and preparing for contingencies, but even doing these things will not be enough.

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The Tsunami, the Middle East and the U.S.

This tsunami is also illustrative of the unique position in which the U.S. still finds itself in this increasingly multi-polar world, and a reminder that in some important ways the U.S. remains the world’s only true superpower. One way to see this is that the U.S. is the only country that is going to be heavily involved, financially and otherwise, in addressing the two biggest global developments this year, the tsunami and the rapidly changing the Middle East. China, for example, may play a role in helping Japan, but will not be investing any resources in trying to make a smooth transition in the new Middle East. Several European countries will come to Japan’s assistance, but not to the extent that the U.S. will.

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Jay Inslee and the Power of Stating the Obvious →

Congressman Jay Inslee (D-WA) recently commented that Republicans have "an allergy to science and scientists" during a congressional hearing targeting the EPA. This observation is significant not because of its insight, as Inslee was doing little more than stating the obvious. It is, however, unusual to hear a member of Congress make these kinds of matter of fact statements. While debate in Congress is often quite intense, Democrats seem uncomfortable saying these kinds of things even when they are painfully obvious. Most Republicans probably would not even challenge Inslee as leaders of that party frequently state that they prefer faith to science, particularly when it comes to matters of biology or the environment.

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Back to the Nineties with Newt →

Before there was Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker or any of the other current radical conservatives seeking the national spotlight and perhaps the Republican nomination for president, there was Newt Gingrich. The recent boomlet around a potential presidential bid by the aging right wing revolutionary feels like a strange hybrid of the unique quirkiness that has always been part of Gingrich with nostalgia for the 1990s. Next thing you know, we'll be talking about impeaching a Democratic president and shutting down the government. Maybe the 1990s really are back.

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