Lincoln Mitchell

Blog

This page contains links to recent blogs by Lincoln Mitchell

Posted in: US Politics

The Republican Money Problems →

During the last few months a very strange political development has occurred. Most of the Republican candidates seeking to unseat President Obama in November have encounteredserious trouble raising money. By April of 2007, Hillary Clinton had raised $36 million; and Barack Obama had raised $24 million. No Republican candidate today has even approached these totals. Some Republican candidates, like Mitt Romney, can finance much of their campaigns themselves, but financing an entire presidential campaign is extremely expensive and should not be necessary for candidates, particularly Republican candidates, who enjoy significant political support.

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The Death of Bin Laden a Definite Game Changer Maybe →

Keeping America safe from Jihadist terror remains a complex task, which may be slightly easier, particularly in the short term, without Osama bin Laden. It still requires a delicate combination of domestic security, some use of force, sincere efforts to win hearts and minds, good intelligence work and an awareness of how US actions are perceived by many outside of our country. The killing of bin Laden, while a positive development to be sure, addresses none of these things, but more significantly provides a moment for our leaders to pause, recognize this important victory and determine what direction to take the fight against terrorism.

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Will We Have Another Election with No Discussion of Jobs? →

It is obviously in the interest of the American people for jobs to be at the center of the upcoming presidential election. If both candidates, and parties, focused on job creation during the campaign, offering competing visions to address the issue of job creation, than the issue that dominates the lives and outlook of many Americans would get the attention it deserves. A campaign in which joblessness is viewed as a central problem that needs to be addressed is not likely because, while it may be what the people want and need, it does not help either of the major parties, or their likely, and in the case of the Democrats, all but certain, nominees.

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For Obama, Being Lucky May Be More Important Than Being Good →

A thoughtful, calculating Trump concerned about his image and unwilling to throw away money on hopeless causes would have either positioned himself similarly to the way he did in 2000 or would have abandoned this campaign already, but Trump has done neither. This suggests that Trump may be no longer be able to exercise sound judgment and may in fact run for president, while still having little chance of winning. If that happens, the Republicans will have a big problem on their hands as the candidate who, even in this field,stands out for his weakness as a general election candidate, would be the only candidate with enough money to stay in until the end. If it is true that it is better to be lucky than good, than President Obama may find himself in good shape in November of 2012.

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Will Foreign Policy Be a Campaign Issue in 2012

American politics in the post-Bush era have again entered a period where there is, for the most part, a foreign policy consensus between the two major parties. This consensus, however, is not held throughout the electorate creating an opening for a clever White House aspirant who is willing not just to take on President Obama, but the leadership of the Republican Party as well. If this candidate does not emerge, it is likely that foreign policy will remain in the background throughout the 2012 campaign.

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Republicans Aren't Falling in Line in 2012 →

The Republican nomination, on the other hand, for the first time in many years, has neither a clear frontrunner, nor somebody who can legitimately lay claim to having paid their dues and waited their turn as, for example, was the case with John McCain in 2008, Bob Dole in 1996 or George H.W. Bush in 1988. The candidate who comes closest to meeting this description is Mitt Romney who finished second to McCain in 2008, but has not been a mainstay of Republican politics for very long and was an unknown outside of his home state a mere five years ago. Haley Barbour and Newt Gingrich, unlike Romney, have been prominent national Republicans for years, but have failed to mobilize sufficient support to plausibly present themselves as frontrunners.

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I'm In, but Without Any Enthusiasm →

While the good news for Democrats is that Obama may be in a relatively strong position to get reelected, the bad news for progressives is that Obama is now clearly just another Democrat with little real ability to inspire or bring about real change. The reasons to vote for Obama are clear: He will make better appointments to the Supreme Court than a Republican president would; he will stand up to the most extreme and dangerous proposals from a John Boehner-led House of Representatives and a U.S., Senate which could be taken over by the Republicans in 2012 or 2014; and he will pay more attention to issues regarding the environment, civil rights and organized labor, although will probably not really fight for any of this. There are, of course, other reasons as well, but the basic point remains that we need to vote for the guy who is disappointing and uninspiring because the other options are worse.

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Whither the Health Care Reform Bill? →

March 23rd was the one year anniversary of the passage of the health care reform bill. This date came and went with very little fanfare or media attention. The anniversary was overlooked partially because of the import of today's issues including the no fly zone in Libya, the aftermath of the tsunami in Japan and the ongoing budget fights in Washington, but it was also overlooked because a year after its passage, it is increasingly clear that the health care bill may not have been as significant as it seemed, and was presented, at the time. The text messages sent from the Obama political operation celebrating the anniversary of this bill, and suggesting its historic significance, largely served to underscore that a year after passage, the health care reform bill is not really historic at all.

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Republican Positioning for 2012 →

The absence of a clear front runner has encouraged numerous politicians, and at least one non-politician, to begin to explore a bid for the nomination. The breadth, and in some respects absurdity of this field, is striking. It includes Mitt Romney, a businessman turned liberal governor turned right wing ideologue, Newt Gingrich, a scandal plagued 1980s-1990s futurist, Haley Barbour, a former governor of Mississippi and chair of the RNC who would not have looked out of place railing against desegregation half a century ago, Mike Huckabee, a friendly sounding but often frightening preacher turned politician, Sarah Palin whose media savvy should not be underestimated, Michele Bachman who seems to take a sophomoric joy in saying every provocative and radical thought that pops into her head, Donald Trump a real estate developer, television personality and blowhard all rolled into one and many more and Tim Pawlenty who looks like the normal viable candidate on paper, but has failed to break through more broadly.

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The Tsunami and the Future →

The combination of continued population growth, the rumblings of global climate change and consistently increasing demands for all resources including energy, but also for water and land makes all of us particularly vulnerable to natural disasters like the one we have just witnessed. The tsunami should help demonstrate the import of investing in infrastructure and preparing for contingencies, but even doing these things will not be enough.

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The Tsunami, the Middle East and the U.S.

This tsunami is also illustrative of the unique position in which the U.S. still finds itself in this increasingly multi-polar world, and a reminder that in some important ways the U.S. remains the world’s only true superpower. One way to see this is that the U.S. is the only country that is going to be heavily involved, financially and otherwise, in addressing the two biggest global developments this year, the tsunami and the rapidly changing the Middle East. China, for example, may play a role in helping Japan, but will not be investing any resources in trying to make a smooth transition in the new Middle East. Several European countries will come to Japan’s assistance, but not to the extent that the U.S. will.

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Jay Inslee and the Power of Stating the Obvious →

Congressman Jay Inslee (D-WA) recently commented that Republicans have "an allergy to science and scientists" during a congressional hearing targeting the EPA. This observation is significant not because of its insight, as Inslee was doing little more than stating the obvious. It is, however, unusual to hear a member of Congress make these kinds of matter of fact statements. While debate in Congress is often quite intense, Democrats seem uncomfortable saying these kinds of things even when they are painfully obvious. Most Republicans probably would not even challenge Inslee as leaders of that party frequently state that they prefer faith to science, particularly when it comes to matters of biology or the environment.

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Back to the Nineties with Newt →

Before there was Michele Bachmann, Sarah Palin, Scott Walker or any of the other current radical conservatives seeking the national spotlight and perhaps the Republican nomination for president, there was Newt Gingrich. The recent boomlet around a potential presidential bid by the aging right wing revolutionary feels like a strange hybrid of the unique quirkiness that has always been part of Gingrich with nostalgia for the 1990s. Next thing you know, we'll be talking about impeaching a Democratic president and shutting down the government. Maybe the 1990s really are back.

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The Fight in Wisconsin →

In some respects, the biggest surprise about Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker's efforts to take away public employee unions' right to bargain collectively is why it took so long. Public employee unions are an understandably irresistible target to right wing Republicans. Public employee unions work for the government which, in Republican minds, is already one strike against them. They also reflect efforts by ordinary people to succeed not through feats of individualism, but through working together and cooperating, which, inevitably, feels too close to socialism for most Republicans. Lastly, in many places, although not Wisconsin, public employee unions are heavily non-weight, so consist of people that would be unlikely to vote for the Republican Party anyway.

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Egypt and Post Affluent America

These developments could have a dramatic effect on global politics, changing political alliances, alignments and regimes throughout the Middle East. A democratic wave, anti-American backlash, strengthened Islamist movement presence, consolidation by new secular authoritarian governments or numerous different combinations of these possibilities are all potential outcomes in Tunisia, Egypt and perhaps elsewhere. At any time, these developments would raise an extraordinary challenge for U.S. policy makers eager to ensure American interests are defended and that human rights and democracy are expanded. The U.S. would also be preparing to become involved in the evolution of new political systems and structures in each of these countries offering money, resources, and expertise. Not surprisingly, these sentiments have been reflected, almost implicit, in much of what the Obama administration has said about these events thus far.

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Obama's Budget Dilemma →

President Obama's latest budget proposals have frustrated many progressives who believe that Obama is cutting programs that are important to progressives while not asking for similar sacrifices from conservatives. Others have argued that spending cuts will prolong the recession and dampen any job generation that might be occurring. There is a lot of truth to both these claims. Obama has proven throughout his presidency that he is willing to negotiate away too much, often starting negotiations by meeting his political opponents halfway, or more. Additionally, deficit spending is far more likely to generate jobs and economic activity than cutting spending and trying to balance the budget.

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Remembering Reagan →

Much of what Democrats and progressives hate most about the Republican Party, including the class warfare that has shifted enormous amounts of wealth to the rich while economic conditions have gotten worse for most Americans, radical social conservatism and enormous defense budgets that both create massive debt problems and ensure an aggressive and often disastrous US foreign policy, have their origins in the Reagan years. However, Democrats understand that Reagan's enduring popularity means that Reagan can never be criticized and that the rather obvious point that the roots of many of today's problems lie in the Reagan presidency cannot be mentioned, without incurring significant political consequences.

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Supporting Democracy and Supporting Dictatorship in Egypt →

The massive demonstrations in Egypt against that country's authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak have had some interesting effects on American politics as well. Some apologists for the administration of George W. Bush, notably Elliott Abrams in the pages of the Washington Post, have argued that the events in Egypt have vindicated former President Bush. Believing this assertion clearly requires a very charitable understanding of recent history. There is, of course, very little evidence to suggest that the people struggling in Egypt today are somehow influenced by either the former president's words regarding democracy or by events in Iraq. In some abstract way, Bush was right in that the Egyptian people, like all people, want their freedom, but this is a very tenuous reason for giving the former president any credit for what is happening in Egypt.

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The Deficit, Foreign Policy and Defunding USAID

Eliminating USAID would have a strong policy impact and all but negligible fiscal one and would not be a good idea. It is also unlikely to happen, at least in the near future. Nonetheless, this statement by many Republican members of congress should be taken seriously because it reflects two related developments in the U.S. that will have major impacts on foreign policy if they become more important.

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The Right Tone for the State of the Union →

For President Obama, the path to victory in 2012 appeared to become more evident in recent weeks. Since last November's shellacking, Obama has done two things that could strengthen his reelection chances in 22 months. First, he has begun to successfully portray himself as charting a middle course between extremists in both parties. By forging compromises that have angered both the left of his Democratic Party and the far right of the Republican Party, Obama has contributed to this image. The lengthy list of legislative accomplishments, in spite of a confoundingly difficult political environment, to which he can point also contributes to this perception. Second, Obama has, for one of the few times since taking office, regained some of the communication skills that he demonstrated as a candidate. This was most apparent during his speech in Arizona following the tragic shooting in Tucson.

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