Lincoln Mitchell

Blog

This page contains links to recent blogs by Lincoln Mitchell

Posted in: Baseball

Hip Hip Jorge: Saying Goodbye to Posada and Placing Him Among the Yankee Greats

The question of whether or not Posada is one of the twenty greatest Yankees will have to be left to future, and longer, subway rides, but his place in the top 25 is reasonably secure. The same ambiguity around Posada’s place in Yankee history will probably surround his Hall of Fame candidacy, but there is no ambiguity around his role in the last four Yankee championships. If game five of the LDS was indeed Posada’s last game, he will be missed by all Yankee fans, whether hunched over their computers looking at numbers or cursing A-Rod while semi-conscious on the subway.

Comment

The Trouble with the Moneyball Movie

The movie version of Moneyball, probably due to the necessity of building some kind of dramatic story, pays more attention to Beane and the tension between him and his scouts, rather than to the concepts which underlay Beane’s approach. The problem with this approach is that the movie suggests that Beane’s strategy won out over that of the scouts, thus allowing the A’s to succeed in 2003.

Comment

Mariano Rivera, Dave Righetti and Converting Starters to Relievers

When Mariano Rivera saved his 602nd game earlier this month, he solidified his position, although there should not have been any remaining doubt, as the greatest closer ever. One of the many interesting things about Rivera’s career is how he transitioned from a 25 year old with a 5.51 ERA in 19 games, including ten starts with 51 strikeouts and 30 walks over 67 innings in 1995, to becoming the best setup man in the game in 1996 and the best closer ever from 1997 to the present. Whoever decided to put Rivera in the bullpen full time made a very wise decision leading to one more Yankee Hall of Famer and contributing to five more Yankee championships. Interestingly, roughly a decade earlier, a similar decision was made with another Yankee pitcher which dramatically affected that pitcher’s career trajectory and contributed to the Yankees failing to make the post-season in the mid 1980s.

Comment

Justin Verlander's Season in Context

If Verlander’s season is an aberration and high win totals continue to recede into the past, then his season will still stand out as a great season. It is also possible that Verlander’s season, specifically with regards to his win totals, will end up looking more like Fielder’s 1990 which, at the time seemed like a great home run year for Fielder, but was more of a harbinger of what was coming and quickly forgotten in the fifteen or so year offensive explosion that followed.

Comment

Pitching to the Score is not as Easy as it Sounds

There are specific situations where the score will change what pitchers do. With a big lead, pitchers may be less afraid to challenge hitters, a strategy which often results in more strikeouts and hits, but fewer walks. Similarly, in close games pitchers may be reluctant to throw the ball down the middle of the plate, a strategy which would result in fewer home runs, but possibly more walks. Even if we accept this at face value and assume that all pitchers have a sufficient breadth of approaches and sufficient command to implement these strategies, the impact of these approaches over the course of a season or even a career is probably somewhat limited.

Comment

Another Angle on Verlander's Impact

The AL MVP race is beginning to look very interesting, not just because several players are enjoying excellent seasons, but because these players also represent different ways of viewing the award. There are three distinctive types of candidates among the players who are probably the four strongest candidates. Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista is a possible MVP due to having the best overall numbers in the league despite playing for a team that has not been close to the playoff hunt all season long. Justin Verlander may be the league’s best player this year, without whom the Tigers would not be heading towards the playoffs, but is a starting pitcher and very few starting pitchers win MVP awards. Adrian Gonzalez and Curtis Granderson are both the best players on playoff bound teams, but have numbers that are less impressive than Bautista’s. Thus, voting this year means not only voting for the best player, but making a decision about what the award means.

Comment

Hey Giants, How About Some Same Sex Couples on the Kiss Cam

If the Jumbotron at AT&T Park is to be believed, there are no gay people in San Francisco. Either that, or the city’s sizeable gay community includes no baseball fans. The evidence of this is that during the sixth inning of every game, the filler between innings is something called the Kiss Cam. The Kiss Cam consists of couples from the stands being shown on the giant screen in centerfield. After a few seconds, the couple generally notices they are on the screen and kiss each other. The crowd then cheers and the next couple is shown. The couples on the Kiss Cam invariable consist of a man and a woman. Same sex couples are seemingly never shown

Comment

Prospect their Futures and their Teams

There are many variables that determine which prospects are the most promising and have the brightest futures. These include quantitative measures, scouting reports and even things like size, body type, makeup and family background. For example, prospects who come from baseball families are often seen as having a slight advantage over others. One variable that is often overlooked regarding minor league prospects is the organization for which they are playing.

Comment

What is a "True Yankee" and Why Should We Care if Jorge Posada is One

Should Posada move on to another team next year, one of the great Yankee careers will have come to an end. Inevitably, the baseball media and blogosphere in New York, will begin questioning Posada’s credentials as a “true Yankee.” Putting aside the legitimacy of questioning the credentials of a player who played a key role in four Yankee World Series winning teams, delivering numerous big seasons and clutch hits along the way, this also draws attention to the absurdity of this term.

Comment

The Hall of Fame Numbers Game

The question of what active players will eventually get elected to the Hall of Fameis a fun one which can generate numerous articles and even more hours of debate. However, this topic also raises some interesting questions about the Hall of Fame itself and what defines a Hall of Fame ballplayer. Perhaps the most easily overlooked aspect of this discussion has to do with how many active players will end up in Cooperstown.

Comment

The Beltran-Wheeler Trade in Context

The defending World Champion San Francisco Giants made two moves during the days leading up to the trade deadline. One, swapping top pitching prospect Zach Wheeler for slugging outfielder Carlos Beltran was intriguing, the other sending minor league outfielder Thomas Neal to the Cleveland Indians for Orlando Cabrera, a veteran shortstop who may well be finished as a useful player was not necessarily a terrible trade, but a frustrating one nonetheless.

Comment

The Hall of Fame Voting System and the Coming Logjam

In all elections, whether for awards, political office or All Star Games, the election system has a big impact. This will continue to be the case for the baseball Hall of Fame and it will add another dimension to an already complex and sometimes irrational process over the next few year

Comment

Is Matt Cain His Generation's Bert Blyleven

Cain is, however, an intriguing pitcher from a statistical angle. His career win-loss record is an unimpressive 65-67, but this is largely because during 2007 and 2008, he got very poor run support posting a 15-30 record despite an ERA+ of 120. While Cain has been unlucky in one area, some argue that he has been lucky in others, because he has managed to post a lower ERA than his other numbers, such as walks and strikeouts would suggest. Cain has consistently managed to hold his opponents to a lower BABIP than most pitchers, as when Cain is pitching more batted balls turn into outs than might be generally expected.

Comment

The Jeter Narrative

In addition to the inevitable slowing down due to age, the biggest difference between Jeter in 2011 and Jeter in 2010 is that Jeter no longer is able to control the narrative of his media coverage. For most of his career, Jeter handled the media masterfully, avoiding conflict or scandal, always making himself available for a comment but rarely offering an interesting one, and creating an image of himself as a selfless team player. By doing this, Jeter ensured glowing coverage of his activities both on and off the field. While the constant descriptions of Jeter’s commitment to the team, the frequent shots of Jeter cheering whenever a teammate hit a home run and similar coverage may have irritated some, generally this contributed to Jeter’s sterling public image.

Comment

Whither the Dodgers?

If controversy surrounding Frank McCourt were happening to the owner of the Yankees instead of the Dodgers owner, books would already have been written and the casting for the HBO special would be well underway. Because it is happening in baseball’s second largest media market, rather than New York, ithas not gotten the attention it might have. It could be argued that given the size of the Los Angeles market and the import of the Dodgers to baseball in general, the story has gotten surprisingly little publicity.

Comment

A Tough Call on Reyes

As Jose Reyes continues to play the best baseball of his career, the question of how the Mets handle their star shortstop will become even more of a story. The basic question facing the Mets appears to be whether they should try to trade Reyes now while he is playing so well, but about to become a free agent, or whether they should commit to keeping their biggest star by offering a big multi-year contract either during this season or, as given the Mets preference for not negotiating during the season, after the season.

Comment

Baseball Careers for Lefties and Righties

The finding suggests that left-handed and right-handed throwers are, to some extent, playing different games at the big league level, and therefore has implications for player development starting at a very young age. One of the first baseball skills that young children master is fielding. This may be because it is easier than hitting or more likely because it is easier for coaches and parents to practice and teach. Nonetheless, among seven or eight year olds, the better players first begin to stand out because they are good at fielding ground balls. The hitting generally comes a little later, so within a few years the fielders who can hit begin to stand out from those who cannot. However, there are still plenty of ways a good fielder can contribute to a team and be valuable as (s)he gets older. For left-handed throwers, these options disappear usually by high school when traditional views about what position lefties can play become more powerful.

Comment

Foreseeing the Unforeseen Consequences of Baseball Realignment

Any proposal to restructure MLB is going to have its problems, just as the current system does, but it is foolish to move forward too quickly without thinking through these problems in advance. If baseball is comfortable creating a system that is, in some respects, more fair each season, but which further institutionalizes the advantages enjoyed by wealthy teams, that is not an unreasonable decision. On the other hand, rushing ahead with this new system and then feeling shocked and surprised when the Yankees and Red Sox are both in the playoffs for each of the first few years and that teams finishing 13th, 14th or 15th are hemorrhaging fans, would evince an appalling lack of foresight on the part of Major League Baseball.

Comment

Innovating with Left-Handed Throwers

One possible area worth exploring is different ways of using left-handed throwing players. For most of the history of modern baseball, left-handed throwing big leaguers have only been pitchers, outfielders, first baseman and designated hitters. Obviously, many left-handed throwers rank among the greatest ball players ever including hitters like Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Lou Gehrig and Stan Musial and pitchers like Lefty Grove, Randy Johnson and Warren Spahn. However, it is still possible that by restricting the use of left-handed players, teams are missing a possible strategic advantage.

Comment

Why the Giants Should Keep Posey Behind the Plate

Posey is now out for the rest of the season. It will be a good scenario for Posey and the Giants if he is fully recovered in time for spring training 2012. The Posey injury, because of both how it occurred, due to a collision at home plate, and because it happened to Posey, one of baseball’s best and most marketable young players, has drawn a lot of attention. Two major themes have emerged from this attention: whether or not baseball should change its rules to minimize the chances of collisions at home plate and young players of Posey’s caliber should be moved away from the catcher’s position to allow them to play longer.

Comment