This page contains links to recent blogs by Lincoln Mitchell
Posted in: Baseball
For some people, the identity forged by allegiance to a favorite sports team is a way to remember the city where they grew up, a parent or childhood in general. This is one of the great things about being a fan, but to read anything more than this into one’s choice of baseball teams, while tempting, would be a mistake.
When Robinson Cano tossed the ball to Mark Texeira for the final out of the sixth game of the World Series, the Yankees won their 27th World Series and fifth since Major League Baseball first used the current expanded playoff system in 1995. The Yankees have now won one third of all World Series since 1995, an impressive accomplishment given how difficult it is to survive a three round playoff system. Clearly the Yankees have benefited from a front office that is willing and able to spend the money needed to put a strong team on the field every year, but just as clearly, there are additional explanations for the Yankees’ success.
The ninth inning: I am signing off for the night, unless something dramatic happens. Was fun chatting.
Bottom of the eighth: It has been that kind of series for Swisher. Jeter, as we were just reminded, is the all-time post-season hit leader. For what it is worth the all time non-Yankee World Series hit leader is the Fordham Flash-Frankie Frisch.
Top of the eighth: I don’t think too many Yankee fans thought Damaso Marte would be a big part of their post-season success. At this phase of his career, Rivera gives up runs, but rarely melts down. It is beginning to rain in the Bronx, but not yet in Northern Manhattan. I assume Selig will allow this game to be finished tonight.
Bottom of the seventh: With the bottom of the Yankee lineup completely silent, this is probably their last scoring opportunity. If this ends tonight, A-Rod will have had a strange series. Much fewer big hits than in the ALCS, but in the middle of a lot of rallies. Cano looks about as bad as a big league hitter can look. He makes Texeira look like Reggie Jackson.
Top of the seventh: The Phillies need baserunners here, but if the good Joba has shown up, it could be a short inning for them. This is likely Joba’s last batter, so he could salvage a disappointing season here. A walk to Victorino is not the way Joba wanted to end his season. Perhaps Marte can bail him out. The need to go to Marte in the 7th all but ensures that Rivera will be asked to get six outs. Girardi has said that Rivera is ready to do this, but even for Rivera six outs is a lot, particularly if this lead gets smaller. The way Marte has been throwing, he might be able to get through the eighth which would make Rivera even stronger in the ninth.
Bottom of the sixth: Swisher had seemed to have lost his ability to draw walks this World Series before this at bat. That had been one of his biggest strengths during the regular season. With Hairston in the number two hole, a bunt from Gardner makes less sense.
Top of the sixth: This is a very important inning for Philadelphia. If Pettitte gets through the middle of the lineup without giving up a run, the countdown of outs can begin in earnest. With all the attention on the starting pitching, little attention has been paid to how the Yankees will use their bullpen, but I would assume, and hope, that Girardi will use Chamberlain and Robertson to get to Rivera, spotting Marte against Utley and Howard. The Phil brothers may be done for the year. Reggie Jackson just breathed a sigh of relief. Howard’s home run was kind of inevitable, but it may not be enough. Neither Pettitte or Martinez pitched particularly well, but Pettitte pitched better. He did about as well as the Yankees could have hoped. If the Yankees hold on, it will be a victory won by their bats. With the lefties out of the way for at least an inning, if Joba is throwing well, he can them to Rivera.
Bottom of the fifth: For what its worth, Girardi’s best move as manager this year may have come in spring training when he put Jeter back in the leadoff spot. Girardi should get credit for looking at OBP rather than simply batting Jeter second because he is a middle infielder. On a related note, Jeter may break the all-time Yankee stolen base record next year. It is currently held by none other than Rickey Henderson. The Phillies need a loogy to get Matsui out here. Another RBI by Matsui and this game will get very short very quickly for the Phillies. That plan did not work out so well for Philadelphia. Turns out the Yankees are pretty good even though Cliff Lee beat them twice. Posada this series seems to have a principled position that he only gets hits in clutch situations.
Top of the fifth: Pettitte’s control problems tonight have made this a tough game for him. The Phillies have real power and they Yankees still need at least nine more outs before Rivera. Rollins hit into a rare double play, so Pettitte survived another inning. With all the ink about how Pedro has become a wily, clever pitcher, Pettitte is for the third time in as many starts getting by without his best stuff.
Bottom of the fourth: With Hairston in the number two spot, the Yankee lineup has a different feel. It puts a little pressure on Posada-Gardner to contribute a little bit today as the top half of the lineup is not as solid. Robinson Cano is now literally not hitting his weight. Nice to see Mayor Bloombers who, as it turns out actually did need to spend all that money to get reelected yesterday, enjoying the game. It is a shande that the mayor of New York is a Red Sox fan.
Top of the fourth: Another injury for the Yankees. The Yankees have a useful bench, but not actual depth. They have pinch runners, good defensive ballplayers, but nobody who can really hit other than Gardner, who was already in the lineup. Hairston is a big downgrade from Damon. If Pettitte can follow one half inning in which the Yankees score by shutting down the Phillies, it would change the tenure of the game a lot. Tim McCarver just said that too much is made of pitchers starting on three days rest. If he really felt that way, maybe he should have talked about something else during the last 48 hours.
Bottom of the third: Gardner looked terrible against Martinez. He is a better player than that. Martinez has probably gone through 50 pitches and is not yet through the third. It will be interesting if Manuel has to patch it together tonight because if it goes well, he will have to do the same thing tomorrow night. This is Texeira’s moment, let’s see how he does. A seal on every rock for A-Rod. Nice bit of hitting by Matsui.
Top of the third: What would the announcers talk about if Pettitte were going on four days of rest. It seems like they have discussed this ad nauseum. It is a convenient topic because and an easy way to explain a potential bad outing for Pettitte, but there is no way to prove this. If Pettitte pitches well, will anybody say it was because he was on short rest? If Ruiz scores, will Yankee fans stop eating Dunkin’ Donuts?
It is interesting watching a series where so many key players, Texeira, Howard, Cano etc. are slumping but where the managers are doing so little. Manuel and Girardi get some credit for not panicking, but this is also a result of the post-season rosters and stability of both lineups. The Yankees and Phillies do not have a lot of plan Bs. However, if Pena pinch runs with none out in the seventh, Girardi will be making a big mistake.
Bottom of the second: Amazing to see A-Rod not take strike one as he seems to have done ever plate appearance this series. Walking A-Rod in front of three Yankee lefties could be trouble, but Cano seems to have checked out for the series. Has anybody noticed how both Matsui and Damon have swings any decent Little League coach would change right away? Getting to Pedro early is big for the Yankees, but they now need to get the big inning, which they have had trouble doing through much of the post-season.
Pedro made one mistake to Matsui, but gets credit for keeping the Phillies in the game. A two run lead is unlikely to be enough in this game.
Top of the second: Pettitte is throwing a lot of pitches and not getting ahead of too many hitters, but if he is going to walk anybody, Werth is the guy. Tim McCarver just mentioned that the Yankees have quieted Philadelphia’s left-handed bats. That may come as news to Chase Utley. Pettitte looks like he is struggling, but that is kind of the look he has on his face all the time when he is pitching.
Bottom of the first: Texeira is having the kind of series where a fly ball to the warning track counts as a successful at at bat. The Yankees benefit more from coming back to their park because Matsui’s bat is a real asset. Without Molina as Burnett’s personal catcher, the Yankee lineup is as deep as it should be. Gardner in the number nine spot may even be an improvement on Melky.
Top of the first: The left side of the Yankee infield is interesting for many reasons. One is that both Jeter and A-Rod have strong arms and limited range. Utley’s first at bat will set a tone. The Yankees would be foolish to throw at him and probably won’t. Nice first half inning for the Yankees.
Pre-game: The national media, being both Yankee-centric and Yankee-phobic, seems to have already written the Yankees’ obituary. You would not know from listening to the analysis or reading most newspapers that even if the Yankees lose tonight, tomorrow’s game will pit CC Sabbathia against either Cliff Lee on two days rest or a whatever combination of pitchers Charlie Manuel can put together.
My sense is that Pettitte needs to start off strongly, but so does the Yankee offense. Pettitte is, at this point in his career, against a lineup like the Phillies’, good for six innings and four runs. If he does that, the game will be decided by the Yankee offense and Pedro’s pitching. Pedro is a bit of a wild card here as he could either be very strong or out of the game by the fourth inning. If is is a low scoring game, the Phillies may win, but if it is high scoring, the Yankees should come out on top.
The desire to downplay the import of luck is natural. It is disturbing to think that two teams work so hard for so many months, only to have the championship decided by a matter of luck, but that is often what happens. It is more disturbing, however, to imply that teams lose because their players don’t try hard enough, which is exactly what is implied when winning is explained by greater determination.
While the depth of the Yankee lineup may give them a slight edge, Howard, Werth and Ibanez are sufficiently strong home run hitters to make that edge only marginal. There is, however, one more major difference between the lineups that gives a greater edge to the Yankees; and it has nothing to do with power. The top of the Yankee lineup is one of the few real advantages either team has in this series. Derek Jeter and Johnny Damon, posted on base percentages of .406 and .365 this season. These numbers dwarf those of the Phillies first two hitters Rollins (.296) and Shane Victorino (.358). In a short series, if these four players perform as they usually do, there will be a slight but unambiguous advantage for the Yankees, one that may lead to a few more runs for New York and fewer big innings for the Phillies. Ironically, in a World Series that pits the top home run hitting teams in each league against each other, it may be the top of the order that makes the difference.
The Yankees beat a tough Angels team in the ALCS, moreover, largely because some of the highest paid players in the game including, Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia, Mariano Rivera and Derek Jeter played great baseball However, they also won for other, albeit more quotidian, reasons. The Yankees beat the Angels because they played fundamentally sound baseball and were smarter on the bases and in the field then their opponents. It doesn’t take a high priced free agent, although Vladimir Guerrero was one, to know not to get doubled off first base on a soft line drive to right field. Players who make less then ten million dollars a year should be able to throw to first and catch throws to first cleanly. These and other mistakes were a big part of the Angels undoing.
In general, the powerful Yankee offense has contributed to a narrative about the Yankees that misses a lot. It is almost as if their extraordinary home run power is treated by the analysts on Fox and TBS as prima facie evidence that the Yankees do not play fundamentally strong baseball. This is supposed to be the strength, according to this paradigm, of the faster and scrappier Twins and Angels. Of course, during both series, so far at least, it is the Yankees that have made fewer mistakes, and particularly fewer mental mistakes.
The problem with the current playoff structure, if a problem exists at all is not that wild cards do not confront enough barriers, but that winners of the league’s weakest division are rewarded for seasons that are often clearly worse than those of the wild card winner.
When the ALDS opens today in the Bronx, it will be the latest installment in the now familiar baseball series called “Can the Yankees make it out of the first round?” Before missing the playoffs last year, the Yankees had been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in three consecutive years, part of a seven year streak of making the playoffs but not winning the World Series.
It seems that one thing most baseball observers understand about the post-season is that having two dominant starters is the key to winning the World Series. Two dominant starters, because of the extra days of rest, can start almost half of there team’s games and carry their teammates to championship. We know this because this is what Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling did with the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001. Spending too much time trying to figure out what happened in other recent post-seasons is, apparently, not worth our time.
Jeter is putting up a very good year for a shortstop, but certainly not the best in recent memory from that position. For this reason, Mauer is likely to, and probably should, win the MVP. If Mauer had spent 130 games or so as a DH, while missing a few weeks with injuries, the Jeter-Mauer question would be an interesting one, but Mauer would still be my choice. The 110 games or so Mauer spent behind the plate this year only make it an easier choice.
Among these four aces, Lincecum has more strikeouts, complete games and shutouts and a lower ERA, while pitching the second most innings, Wainwright is first. Lincecum is also second, to Carpenter, in fewest walks plus hits over nine innings. Carpenter and Wainwright would both be respectable Cy Young choices, and together with an Albert Pujols led Cardinal offense could help the Cardinals play well into October, but the best NL pitcher, and the best top of the rotation so far in 2009, have both been in San Francisco.
It is only a slight exaggeration to say that success in the regular season in determined by the back end of pitching rotations, but that in the playoffs these pitchers barely matter. Successful regular season teams frequently have strong number four and five starters who, while not expected to shut down opposing offenses, can keep their team in the game. Teams with genuinely good four and five starters in the regular season usually are very difficult to beat over the course of a long season. Similarly, good offenses which can consistently beat up on the back ends of opposing rotations can give their teams a real advantage in reaching the post-season.
Andy Pettitte probably won’t and probably shouldn’t go into the Hall of Fame. However, the image of Pettitte as the all-time Yankee leader in wins and strikeouts who fits into a long history of great Yankee lefties who spent their whole career with the franchise might have been enough to get Pettitte significantly more consideration. However, that is not the narrative at which voters will be looking. Instead they will see a pitcher who is not one of the very few great players to spend their career with one team, who is second or third, but not first in a few categories for Yankee pitchers and who was just a little too close to Roger Clemens during the latter’s steroid period.
The problem with the inning limit, estimated at 150-160, the Yankees have imposed on Joba Chamberlain for the season is not the number of innings, but that there never seemed to be a plan for implementing the limit. Did Yankee management really think that starting Chamberlain every fifth day for half the season and every sixth to tenth day for the second half of the season was a good idea? Did they really think that this was a good way to get the most out of him in the post-season? On August 1st, Chamberlain looked like he could be the Yankees number two starter in October. Thus far in August, he has pitched his way into the number four spot in the post-season rotation; and there is real danger the Yankees will not want to use him at all in October.
Whenever Rose’s name comes up, it is usually in the context of discussing the ban. Meanwhile memories of Rose the player have begun to fade. Rose was not only a great player, and in many respects the iconic player of his generation, but a very unusual one. No player in history has had a career quite like Rose’s. As a player, Rose is now primarily remembered for being baseball’s all time hit leader, but even that only tells part of the story.
The Olympic decision seems to have come right as international baseball is approaching a tipping point. In the next few years Major League Baseball will likely become more international as more countries are represented at the Major League level, thus building greater fan bases outside the U.S. and contributing the growth in popularity of the baseball globally, and the WBC specifically. The inner workings of the IOC on questions like this are something of a mystery to me, but they made a mistake this time and placed themselves firmly behind the curve with regards to baseball’s international popularity.
The defensive spectrum, however, particularly the notion that middle infielders and catchers are not expected to hit as much as other players, has not been entirely constant over time. The basic framework has applied for over a century, but the extent to which it has been accurate has varied. At first glance it would seem like currently there are more middle infielders who contribute offensively, and fewer who are in the lineups exclusively for their gloves, than a generation ago, but this alone does not represent strong evidence.
The only thing we know for certain about steroid usage in baseball is that we don’t know anything for certain about steroid usage in baseball. Leaked information, inconclusive tests and strong suspicions comprise the majority of the “evidence” in this area. The list of stars that are either clearly guilty or strongly suspected,of using steroids is well known and includes some of the biggest names in the game’s recent history: McGwire, Sosa, A-Rod, Bonds, Ortiz and Clemens.
George Brett, Willie McCovey and Eddie Murray were three of the game’s all-time greats. Bill James ranked Brett as the 30th greatest player ever, followed by Murray as the 61st and McCovey in the 68th spot. James awards Murray 437 career win shares, followed by Brett at 432 and McCovey at 408. James’ ranking makes sense and recognizes Brett’s additional value as a third baseman, rather than a first baseman like the other two. If, however, we just focus on offensive production, the debate raises some interesting questions not only about peak versus career figures, but about how valuable different kinds of peaks are.