A Brokered Convention Preview

Every four years a subset of pundits and political junkies speculate about a brokered convention where no candidate comes into the convention with enough delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot, thus leading to discussions, multiple ballots and deal-making before a nominee is finally chosen. For much of American history this was common, but in the last half century or so that has changed. The last genuinely brokered Democratic convention was 1952 when the eventual nominee was Adlai Stevenson. Early opposition to Donald Trump among many Republicans led to speculation that the 2016 Republican convention would be brokered, but it didn’t work out that way.

How Oligarchy Corrodes Democracy

Michael Bloomberg’s campaign for president is unprecedented in American political life. The sheer size and scope of Bloomberg’s campaign spending has vaulted a candidate who is out of step with the Democratic Party primary electorate on many important issues into the top tier of candidates. While the money is important, Bloomberg’s campaign has also been well run, on message and politically astute. Bloomberg, in contrast to the man he is trying to unseat, is not just some rich guy who has surrounded himself with grifters and hangers on. Rather, the three term New York City mayor has hired some of the best and smartest political professionals around. 

Nonetheless, the big story of the Bloomberg campaign is that he has thus far outspent all of the other Democrats combined by a factor of probably around three to one. One of the most valuable fruits of his spending spree has been that it has contributed to a growing perception that Bloomberg, despite never having been tested in a campaign against somebody who can spend enough money to compete with him, is uniquely electable. Importantly, if Bloomberg wins the nomination, that notion will be tested in the fall because Trump will have enough money to campaign aggressively against Bloomberg.

The magnitude of Bloomberg’s wealth is not easy to comprehend. Unlike Donald Trump, who is a low rent caricature of a billionaire, Bloomberg, who outspent his Democrats by a margin of about 10-1 in each of his three campaigns for mayor, is the real deal. In other words, Bloomberg is a real oligarch, Trump just plays one on television. Much of the attention around how Bloomberg has used his money thus far focuses, rightly, on his television and social media ads which are very good, hard-hitting and pretty much everywhere. Additionally, Bloomberg has not only been able to hire top political talent, but has been able to staff operations all over the country including in important states like Florida, while his opponents do not have the money to create similar operations. 

A lesser emphasis has been on the tertiary effects of Bloomberg’s philanthropical efforts. Bloomberg has been an influential and generous philanthropist for decades and has contributed billions to causes ranging from medical research to reforming gun laws to combating climate change. Much of this work has been very admirable. Unlike the grifter in the White House, Bloomberg is a rich man who has used some of his almost unfathomable wealth to make real and positive change.

The problem this raises for democracy is that because Bloomberg has spent, and continues to spend, so much money, and because it is clear now that, at least to an extent, the line between his philanthropic work and his political ambitions is blurred, every statement of support for him raises questions about a money trail. Thus, while politics has long been transactional, an oligarch like Bloomberg takes that to a different level. The word oligarch has negative connotations, but in a value neutral descriptive sense that is what Bloomberg is. He is a man of extraordinary wealth who puts his wealth to use to further, and in fact create, his political career and whose wealth is spread across many key sectors of the political landscape such as campaign funding, philanthropy and media.

The problem for democracy is that because we know that Bloomberg runs a media empire and has brought numerous social media influencers into his campaign, we now wonder whether every pro-Bloomberg Tweet or Instagram post comes from somebody who is on the payroll. Similarly, when a newspaper columnist writes a pro-Bloomberg piece, we begin to wonder about whether or not there is a money trail there. For example, New York Times columnist Tom Friedman wrote a relatively standard fare pro-Bloomberg column last week that included these italicized words in parentheses at the end of the article (Disclosure: Bloomberg Philanthropies has donated to Planet Word, the museum my wife is building in Washington, to promote reading and literacy.) Friedman, and the Times, should get credit for being transparent, but the article leaves unanswered the question of how much money Bloomberg donated and how much influence that money has secured. Moreover, the reader begins to wonder whether every pro-Bloomberg piece, is written because the author is benefiting financially. Correspondingly, every time an anti-Bloomberg piece we can wonder whether the author is bitter because he is not getting money from Bloomberg. (Full disclosure-Neither my wife, my children or I am getting any money from Bloomberg, but I have friends in most of the Democratic campaigns including Bloomberg’s. I am undecided in the primary, but will support whoever is nominated against Trump.)

These concerns goes beyond media figures and pundits and extends to Bloomberg’s impressive list of endorsements. It is certainly possible that these people including mayors like Michael Tubbs of Stockton and London Breed of San Francisco, members of congress like Ted Deutch of Florida or Haley Stevens from Michigan support Bloomberg because they like his brand of centrism and think he can win. It is also possible that he contributed to their campaigns and they are repaying the favor or that they benefited from one of his philanthropic efforts. This is more or less normal politics, but the problem of oligarchy is that because Bloomberg has so much money, the suspicions that the financial tie was bigger than that, perhaps in the form of a promised major contribution to a favorite charity or something of that nature, always linger. This is a problem of oligarchy, not of Bloomberg himself, because even if he never gave another penny to causes supported by these politicians, the suspicion would still be there. The overall effect of this is to increase distrust in politics, politicians and government as voters come to believe that everything is simply about the money. 

Bloomberg is doing nothing illegal and, like every Democrat still meaningfully in the race, would be an infinitely better President than Donald Trump. The former New York City Mayor is also running a smart campaign and using whatever resources he can. In the context of American political competition, this is smart and rational behavior. Nonetheless, it is also sets a potentially very dangerous precedent that could lead to new challenges to American democracy at a time when the crisis is already profound.

Photo: cc/Money

How to Really Reform the Democratic Primaries

Now that primary season is underway we are again reminded of just how flawed the current system is. Every four years the political class and some scholars raise questions about why we choose our presidents this way, but after the election these questions fade away as more seemingly pressing and urgent issues take over, so while we tinker with the rules changing them slightly for every nominating season, we never address the underlying problems.

Bernie's Moment

Bernie Sanders has been running for president essentially nonstop for almost five years now. For much of that time the question that has been the subtext of his candidacy has been can he win-first the Democratic Party nomination and then the general election. With the Iowa caucus, the first contest of the 2020 nominating season, less than a month away, it may be time to rephrase that question-at least the first half of that question-and ask if Bernie can lose the Democratic Party’s nomination. That is an overstatement, but a confluence of recent events and developments in the race have bolstered Sanders’ chances.

2020 Democratic Primary Preview

As the New Year begins it would be foolish to predict with any certainty who the Democratic nominee will be, particularly with a new and extremely well-funded, but untested outside of New York City, candidate competing in primaries beginning in March. However, there are several scenarios that could unfold in phase one. Each would lead to a different set of major contenders in phase two.

Michael Bloomberg and the New Two Party System

Because they have chosen simply to exploit the least democratic elements of the Constitution, the Republicans have no incentive to broaden their party’s appeal or expand that appeal beyond their base. Therefore, there is no reason why the most deluded, angry and narrow parts of the base cannot take over the party-and that is exactly what has happened. The result of this is that a primary opponent to Trump, even somebody with the wealth and resume of Bloomberg, would not only lose, but would be subject to the attacks, threats and slander that is now the way the Republicans respond to all perceived threats to Trump’s power. 

Three Takeaways from the Democratic Debate

These debates have a modest impact on the nominating process because there are so many debates and because the first votes will not be cast for more than four months, but debates provide some insight into the state of the race and what we might see in the coming months. The race now looks like one where the frontrunner is flawed and perhaps out of touch ideologically with both the Democratic Party and a majority of the American people, but also where second tier candidates are struggling to break through in such a crowded field, and where the progressive vote is largely split between Sanders and Warren. Some of this may sort itself out in the next few months, but the large and impressive field, could make this a long primary season. 

Three Questions that Should be Asked at the Debate-But Won’t

On Thursday night, ten Democratic candidates will gather for the third official debate of this primary season. This debate will only be one night and include only ten candidates, so it should be smoother and more useful for potential voters. However, it is still likely that much of the debate will be taken up by detailed discussions of policy proposals on issues like health care, gun regulations or the environment. These discussions are worthwhile, interesting and give a good sense of what the candidates believe, but the emphasis on details belies the reality that presidents don’t make policy. They are merely part of a process along with congress and in many cases the states and the courts. These detailed discussions of policies seem like the right subject for the debate, but there are other bigger picture questions that are probably more important. Below are three questions that Democratic voters should be asking their candidates, but that might not be raised on Thursday night.

The State of the Race as Summer Winds Down

In the last few weeks, Seth Moulton, John Hickenlooper, Kirsten Gillibrand and Jay Inslee have dropped out of the Democratic primary campaign for president. Hickenlooper and Inslee both had resumes that in previous elections could have made them frontrunners for the nomination, but their campaigns never got any traction this year. Both also immediately turned their attention to other elections. Inslee will seek a third term as governor of Washington while Hickenlooper will run for the Senate in Colorado against Republican incumbent Cory Gardner. Moulton, like Eric Swalwell a few weeks earlier, has decided to run for his safe congressional seat rather than continue a presidential campaign he had almost no chance of winning. Gillibrand will return to the Senate.

American History 2020

As the 2020 election approaches, we will inevitably encounter more commentary reminding us how the future of the US is at stake. That is clearly true, because if Donald Trump is reelected the pace of democratic rollback will be accelerated, perhaps irrevocably, while a Democratic victory may just reverse that rollback and make it possible to rebuild a cohesive and democratic country. However, despite the future being at stake, the election itself will largely be a debate about the past. 

The Debates-Who Won, Who Lost and Who Needs to Drop Out

The Democratic presidential debates on Wednesday and Thursday nights were without precedent. Twenty potential nominees, which did not even represent the full field, debated with each other over the course of two evenings. This field of twenty will be winnowed in the next months with a nominee emerging somewhere between April and mid-July of 2020. The debates are only one component of what will be a long campaign, but they are the most important and high profile to date.

The Real Electabliity Questions

Over the last few election cycles we have learned pretty definitively that we know a lot less about electability than we think we do. Our last two presidents, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, were both viewed as axiomatically unelectable when they began their campaigns for the White House. Moreover, most candidates have both positive and negative and electoral traits so their overall electability becomes a post facto assessment rather than having any predictive value. For example, in 2016 Hillary Clinton was very electable until she wasn’t. Similarly, had John Kerry beat George W. Bush in 2004, the punditry would have explained that as a war hero with years of experience he was the perfect candidate, but he lost narrowly, so we have been told he was a northeaster liberal with limited charisma and therefore a week candidate. Given this, when somebody tells you they think a particular primary candidate is electable, what they usually mean is simply that they are supporting that candidate.