For several months now Russian troops have been poised along that country’s border with neighboring Ukraine, raising concerns that Russia will expand its war in Ukraine. Expansion of the war could take many different forms, including sending thousands of more troops into Ukraine in something approximating a full-scale invasion. While that could be devastating for Ukraine, this conflict, must always also be examined in the context of the broader tensions between Russia and the United States.

In recent history, this tension has taken several forms as the US and Russia have clashed around Ukraine, Georgia and elsewhere in the post-Soviet region. In general, Moscow has opposed efforts of these countries to move into a more western orbit. In Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine since 2014, this view has led Moscow to invade or attack, but in addition Moscow has contributed to political instability and disinformation campaigns in those countries. The US has also actively intervened in the domestic politics of much of the region, generally under the guise of democracy promotion, while Moscow sees the American project in Ukraine and elsewhere not so much as being about democracy, but as expanding American power. A central issue in all of this has been Moscow’s deep concern with the possibility of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO, while those countries in turn have sought NATO membership as a way to ensure their defense Russian aggression.

The rift between Russia and the US is not nearly as simple as all of that. Russia’s role in supporting various destabilizing political forces throughout the west, most relevantly for the US in the election of Donald Trump 2016, raises further difficulties for the bilateral relationship between the US and Russia.

This is the framework in which President Joseph Biden must decide what to do to about the increased threat of more Russian aggression in Ukraine.

The foreign policy challenge facing President Biden is genuine and confounding, but no American policy question, even one like this, can be fully understood or sufficiently analyzed unless domestic politics are considered as well. The key thing to understand about every decision Biden confronts is that unlike most previous presidents who operated and functioned in the face of a powerful political opposition, today’s Republican leaders have already demonstrated that they are willing to undermine the stability and security of the US, as most clearly seen by their apologetics for the insurrection of January 6th, if it means weakening Biden and the Democratic Party.

It does not take a brilliant strategist to realize that with inflation rising, Covid still raging in much of the US-albeit due in large part to GOP backed anti-vaccine movements, much of the President’s legislative agenda stalled and Biden’s approval ratings stuck in the low 40s, a foreign policy adventure that goes badly could push Biden into the kind of failure and irrelevance that could usher in the restoration of Donald Trump in November of 2024. While there are good reasons to stop Putin’s aggression in Ukraine, the drumbeat from many GOP leaders for aggressive US action must be seen in this context as well. Additionally, the Republican Party is still desperate to distance itself and from the fealty to Putin that many saw in President Trump.

Recently, the White House announced that about 8,500 troops would be put on high alert. This is not, on its face, a bad decision. It may be the right one and the only way to stop a larger war in Ukraine, but it also true that if the US is pulled into the conflict, it could go very badly very quickly for the US. That would be disastrous for Biden and dama for the country, but would also bring the GOP closer to the goal that they have elevated above all others.

This is admittedly a very cynical take on the current crisis, but it would be irresponsible not to at least consider it. For Biden, there is no easy way out. If he does nothing and Russia invades Ukraine, Biden will have been seen as allowing Putin to pursue his aggressive goals. If he does little and Putin does not invade, the threat and the story will quickly fade away and Biden will get no credit. If he is pulled into a larger and fuller effort to stop Putin and the conflict expands with the US finding itself in another long foreign war, even one that requires a relatively small number of troops, Biden’s numbers will further plummet. For the Republican Party, there is no risk, because even if Biden’s actions lead to Putin backing down, the GOP will take credit for having pushed Biden in that direction.

Given Russia’s role in destabilizing American politics in recent years, it is certain the Kremlin understands the President, and the country’s, vulnerability at this moment. That may not be the primary reason they have chosen now to loudly beat the drums of war in Ukraine, but it has certainly informed their thinking.

Photo: cc/David Hill

Lincoln Mitchell