Putin May Still Have an Ace in the Hole

The lines between domestic and international affairs have never been blurrier than they are now. Nowhere is this clearer than in the complex and increasingly hostile relations between the US, Ukraine and Russia. As the world watched the battles in Ukraine, we should not overlook the enormous impact electoral battles in American states like Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio next month and in 2024 will have on the future of Ukraine.

Biden’s Transformed Presidency

Biden’s challenge is to maintain the consensus view of Putin and Ukraine by continuing to show the American people the horrors of what is occurring in Ukraine and why it is imperative that the US do something about it. The latter is more difficult than the former, but if Biden cannot do that, then the transformation of his presidency will be brief and the return to stalled policy proposals and low approval ratings will be swift.

The Domestic Politics of Biden’s Russia Dilemma

Given Russia’s role in destabilizing American politics in recent years, it is certain the Kremlin understands the President, and the country’s, vulnerability at this moment. That may not be the primary reason they have chosen now to loudly beat the drums of war in Ukraine, but it has certainly informed their thinking.

Local Elections in Georgia

The upshot of all of this is that Georgian democracy is stuck in neutral; more accurately it is stuck in a slow reverse. But, there is another loser in this election as well, the foreign powers, specifically the EU and the US who bought into the political crisis narrative several months ago and forced a strange deal onto the government and then did nothing when the government broke the deal.

September 11th and American Victimhood

One of the most radical, and rarely discussed, ways that September 11th changed the US is that since that day many Americans have begun to think of ourselves as victims. It is true we were attacked that day and the people who died in those attacks or because of their efforts to help on that day were indeed victims. However, the shared sense of national victimhood was a paradigm shift that went well beyond those individuals and their families who were genuinely victims.

The Media, Afghanistan and the Republican Party

Asking Republicans who feign earnest concern about America’s national security, or more ironically how the rest of the world sees us, about January 6th and the Trump administration more generally is not partisanship, it is, in fact, balanced journalism. However, almost nobody in the media did this.

Biden and the Fall of Afghanistan

Events in Afghanistan over the last few days have been a long time coming. They may, in fact, demonstrate how President Biden mishandled the drawdown of troops, but they are better understood as what may be the final chapter in an overly ambitious war that flummoxed American policy makers over two decades and four presidential administrations.

Cuba and Haiti

It was somehow appropriate that no sooner had President Biden finished a major speech about the American departure from Afghanistan before political crises erupted in two countries much closer to home. Recent events in Cuba and Haiti are unrelated and different from each other, but they are a reminder that regardless of the intentions of any functioning president, the US cannot ignore the rest of the world.

Evolving Partisan Positions on Israel

In the most recent conflict, it was Republican Christian voices who offered the most full throated and unequivocal support for Israel and corresponding lack of concern for Palestinians. The strongest pro-Palestinian voices, not surprisingly, came from left wing Democrats, but Jewish Democrats, including Nadler, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Congressman Adam Schiff offered more nuanced positions balancing concerns about Israeli security with Palestinian human rights.

The Coming Biden-Putin Summit

From Putin’s perspective, this meeting will be very different than his interactions with Biden’s predecessor. Unlike Trump, Biden is not going to trust Putin’s word rather than the findings American intelligence agencies. Similarly, whereas Russia supported Trump and sought to help him in his campaigns in both 2016 and, less successfully, in 2020, Biden has never benefited from the Kremlin’s forays into American domestic politics. In short, Russia has lost a client in the White House and that will frame the entire summit. Accordingly, in addition to the myriad issues and tensions between the two countries, for Biden and his party, there is also a sense, among many around Biden, of there being unfinished business from the 2016 election, the SolarWinds hack in 2020 and the relatively new, but enduring and nefarious, ties between the Kremlin and the American far right. Accordingly, Biden’s primary message Putin should be that “there’s a new Sherriff in town.” That is the kind of message that is best delivered in person, but that also needs to be backed up with meaningful actions.

Joe Biden’s Middle East Dilemma

Whatever efforts this administration can make to deescalate the conflict and end this current outbreak of violence must be balanced against the unfortunate reality that there are actors on both sides that have little or no incentive to deescalate and who likely benefit, at least in the short term, from the conflict.

Biden and the Mideast Peace Process

A period where there is no pressure from the American president to find a peace deal and where the American president feels no pressure, from himself or others, to deliver peace may, ironically, be precisely the best environment to begin discussions, informally and with no expectations, around what a peace deal might look like.

Indispensable No More

Today the idea of America as the indispensable, or more charitably, essential, nation is badly frayed. In some respects, the last four years gave the rest of the world, whether friend or foe of the US, a glimpse of what a world without American leadership might look like. No country paid closer attention to that than China, because it is clear by now that if American leadership continues to wane, China is the country that will fill that void.